UK Economics Focus Fewer workers, higher wages We think that most of the fall in the size of the UK’s labour force since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic should eventually be reversed. Even so, we wouldn’t be surprised if this took another two... 14th March 2022 · 19 mins read
US Economics Update Tentative easing in labour shortages Both job openings and quits have fallen back slightly over the past several months, which suggests that wage growth and underlying inflationary pressures should soon stabilise. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics The influence of the war on the UK economy The UK is not as exposed to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine as the rest of Europe. Even so, in response to the surge in global commodity prices caused by the war we have dramatically... 9th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will labour shortages persist? Current labour shortages are not purely the result of short-term absenteeism related to the virus. Indeed, we estimate that around 80% of the shortfall can be explained by factors that will prove more... 8th March 2022 · 24 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 22) The pick-up in wage growth in January was broad-based. However, with regular pay growth still around 0%, the coming energy-driven surge in inflation towards the BoJ’s 2% target won’t be sustained... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Broadening price pressures to prompt rate hikes RBA Governor Lowe noted in a recent speech that the Bank no longer has specific criteria for deciding whether inflation is sustainably in the target range. But he highlighted that along with the... 7th March 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth The war in Ukraine has prompted us to revise our forecasts for euro-zone GDP, inflation and monetary policy. Russia’s downturn in 2015 had no obvious impact on euro-zone GDP and Russia has become less... 4th March 2022 · 12 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The stronger than expected 678,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February and upward revisions to previous months gains is another sign that the real economy has considerable momentum, with the Omicron... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2022) Employment fell back yet again in January after a strong rebound in December. But while employment might have fallen a bit further in February due to the Omicron wave, it should soon bounce back fast... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength a headache for the PBOC As well as a geopolitical quagmire for China’s leadership, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a headache for the PBOC. It has been signalling its dissatisfaction with the strength of the renminbi... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack War in Europe Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and... 25th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
US Employment Report Preview A strong month for payrolls as Omicron fades Reflecting the stronger trend in employment growth apparent in the revised payroll data and the collapse in Omicron cases in February, we expect non-farm payrolls to rise by 600,000 this month. 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Inflationary pressures broadening The evidence of broadening inflationary pressures and the further rise in oil prices suggest that the balance of risks to our inflation forecast lies to the upside. The January consumer price data... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows no major macro concern Net portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have picked up over recent weeks as the growing prospects of war between Ukraine and Russia and tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 23rd February 2022 · 9 mins read
