Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The 39,800 rise in employment in May drove down the unemployment rate to a multi-decade low and there are now clear signs of the tight labour market pushing up wages. That raises the chance of the... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA could raise rates even faster than we anticipate We’ve long been arguing that the RBA will lift rates more sharply than most analysts anticipate and the RBA’s surprise 50bp rate hike this week is consistent with our view that rates will reach 3% by... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Jump in working hours points to strong Q2 rebound The recent jump in overtime hours largely reflects severe labour shortages at hotels and restaurants rather than any surge in demand. However, with overall working hours on track for a strong rise... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Activity holding up and price pressures strengthening Real economic growth is slowing rather than collapsing in the face of the twin drags of higher inflation and rising interest rates. The Chancellor’s latest fiscal handout will help support GDP in the... 8th June 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The upward revision to euro-zone GDP in Q1 was in large part down to the huge increase in Ireland, where the GDP data are notoriously unreliable. So the data aren’t as good as they look. And we still... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Tailwinds fading, headwinds building With some important exceptions, including the German manufacturing sector, economic activity seems to have held up a little better than we had feared so far in Q2. We don’t think this will last. The... 7th June 2022 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update Are the demographic headwinds strengthening? A falling fertility rate and declining employment among retirement age workers pose downside risks to our long-term forecasts for Japan’s labour force and GDP growth. However, with the female... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Apr. 22) While regular wage growth is approaching its pre-pandemic peak, it won’t reach the 3% the Bank of Japan is aiming for anytime soon. More positively though, with overtime working hours reaching levels... 7th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The better than anticipated 390,000 gain in non-farm payrolls adds to the signs that the economy is still strong while, amid a rebound in the labour force, wage growth is beginning to moderate. With... 3rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rising prices won’t prevent solid rebound in Q2 The renewed drop in industrial production and the weakness in retail sales volumes in April has raised concerns that Japan’s recovery will continue to disappoint. However, with consumer prices rising... 3rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages easing in worst hit sectors While the headline job openings and quits rates remain close to record levels, below the surface there are clear signs that labour shortages are easing in the hardest-hit sectors. That provides some... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Apr.) The ongoing jobs recovery continued in April, although employment remained below its pre-pandemic level in more than half the 30 metros covered. Those losers tend to be expensive coastal metros and... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Apr.) The euro-zone unemployment rate remained at a record low in April and the latest business surveys suggest that employment will continue to increase at a decent pace. With the labour market remaining... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but weakness on the horizon GDP across Central Europe expanded strongly in Q1 and the latest figures for March and April suggest that activity has remained resilient since the war in Ukraine started. Russia’s economy has not... 31st May 2022 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update UK lagging behind in labour supply recovery It remains a mixed picture when it comes to how well the labour force is recovering in the wake of the pandemic. The recent improvement in some countries supports our view that much of the pandemic... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
