UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul./Aug.) With further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a cooling in labour demand, the renewed fall in the unemployment rate to a new 47-year low of 3.6% was driven by a shortfall in labour... 13th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The fall in employment in August was concentrated in the public sector and the jump in unemployment reflected an immigration-fuelled rise in the labour force, so they probably overstate the weakness... 9th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The 0.8% q/q increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 will be as good as it gets for a long time. A recession looks inevitable in the coming quarters and the subsequent recovery is likely to be sluggish. 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus What has happened to the Phillips curve? Hopes that policymakers can engineer a soft landing rest heavily on the belief that wage growth can be tamed without a surge in unemployment. This ‘Phillips curve’ relationship has changed recently... 6th September 2022 · 27 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jul. 22) Labour cash earnings growth weakened slightly in July as growth in bonuses slowed and further moderation is in store from August with the end of the summer bonus season. 6th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer boom, Chile’s referendum The surge in consumer spending in Brazil shown in the Q2 GDP figures released this week was partly driven by temporary government support measures. But improvements in the labour market, coupled with... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The slower pace of payroll gains in August, together with the big rebound in the labour force, and the more modest increase in wages, would seem to favour a smaller 50bp rate hike from the Fed next... 2nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment to rise, but not surge We expect the looming recession in the euro-zone to cause the region’s unemployment rate to rise to 7.5% by the middle of next year. But this would still be historically low and is unlikely to be... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (July) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate in July to a record low of 6.6% is likely to be as good as it gets. The region faces a difficult winter and recession looms. So the jobless rate is likely... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update New ADP surveys may be more useful in time The new ADP surveys of employment and wages, unveiled today, have the potential to be a useful independent source of labour market data, but for now their value is hampered by their short history. 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jul.) Almost all metros saw further gains in total employment in July, with Dallas continuing to lead, and joined by Houston, Charlotte and Miami as the fastest growers. But office-based employment growth... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (July 22) The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in July and we do not see much room for further tightening in the labour market in 2022. 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
