Global Economics Update What rate of wage growth is acceptable for central banks? Even though workers are accepting cuts in their real pay, nominal wage growth is still above “acceptable” rates for central banks in DMs of 3% to 4%. This underlines why interest rates need to head... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2), Labour Market (May) & Tokyo CPI (Jun.) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is benefitting from the easing of virus restrictions, the outlook for the manufacturing sector is worsening. Meanwhile, the labour market... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum While the apparent contraction in GDP in May appears to have been partly due to temporary factors, it also reflects the impact of the surge in interest rates on housing. With the business surveys for... 30th June 2022 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth slowing, but no sign of collapse We forecast that payroll employment growth slowed fairly sharply in June, but remained solid at 250,000. That should be enough to keep the Fed on track for another 75bp rate hike in July. Payrolls... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hawkish shift creates difficult environment for Africa The hawkish turn by DM central banks over the past month has further soured investor risk appetite, and capital inflows into African economies are likely to have slowed. Countries with large external... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate in May to a new record low reaffirms the strength of the region’s labour market despite the apparent softening of activity. That will underpin an... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (May) Employment growth slowed last month, but remained above its historic averages. The big gainer in May was Dallas, which recorded the strongest 3m/3m growth in both total and office-based employment... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Tightening cycles still have some way to go Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence... 29th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Tight labour market pushing up wages The tight labour market is putting upward pressure on wages, with the Labour Force Survey showing a strong 1.0% m/m rise in average hourly earnings in May. While the annual rate of wage growth, at 3.9... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Wage growth slump or wage-price spiral? Wage growth is a possible source of the “more persistent inflationary pressures” that the Bank of England has said would prompt it to act “forcefully” when raising interest rates. This Update... 29th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Thai economy to receive tourism boost After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Long Run Update Productivity in the pandemic It is still too early to assess the lasting impact of the pandemic on productivity in developed economies. But we remain optimistic that the legacy could be a positive one. 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More 50bp hikes coming We agree with RBA governor Phillip Lowe that market pricing for the Cash rate looks too aggressive. But we also think the consensus is still too dovish. After all, Governor Lowe is starting to grow... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Scope for labour supply to improve There is still scope for an improvement in labour supply in the US, UK and euro-zone, which might over time alleviate some of the tightness in their labour markets. But it could yet take a long time... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack FX intervention from a position of strength The rupee has held up better than most EM currencies this month and the recent drop in FX reserves strongly indicates that this is in part because the RBI has once again ramped up its FX interventions... 22nd June 2022 · 9 mins read
