Japan Economics Weekly Kishida eager to revive nuclear energy August’s Tokyo CPI showed a further jump in electricity prices. Against this backdrop, PM Kishida announced that he wants to restart more nuclear reactors and build new ones, but it remains unclear... 26th August 2022 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market still hot We forecast a smaller, but still rapid, 350,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.5%. We’ll be discussing the US August employment report in an online Drop... 25th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long Australia’s house prices are now falling at a similar rate as they did during the 2017-19 downturn, which was the largest in the country’s modern history. Home sales remain well above pre-pandemic... 22nd August 2022 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Short term productivity outlook is bleak Already sluggish productivity growth has slowed even further since the pandemic, a disappointing result since Japan’s level of productivity remains much lower than in any other G7 economy. Two key... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will surpass 3% next quarter While there are some early signs that the recovery in employment is sputtering, we aren't convinced that the labour market has turned for the worse just yet. With labour shortages still severe and the... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul. 2022) We wouldn’t read too much into the first drop in employment since last year’s lockdowns. Indeed, the continued tightening of the labour market should encourage the RBA to press ahead with another 50bp... 18th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 reflected the re-opening of the services sector and was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) Wage growth surpassed its pre-virus peak in Q2 and will jump above 3% this quarter due to a surge in the minimum wage and a tightening labour market. 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production in July was much stronger than we expected and provides another clear sign that the economy is still in expansionary territory. That said, the likely drag on... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher migration not enough to cool labour market An increase in the permanent migration programme will help to alleviate labour shortages. But the rapid tightening of the labour market in recent months has been driven by strong labour demand rather... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun/Jul.) June’s labour market figures revealed further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a slightly less tight labour market. That said, by any metric the labour market is still exceptionally... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Prospects for female labour participation in India We agree with PM Modi’s assertion in his Independence Day speech over the weekend that boosting female participation in the labour force could have a major positive impact on the economy, but in truth... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What recessions mean for the labour market Given that unemployment rates have usually risen significantly in recessions, it is tempting to conclude that history is about to repeat itself, to the frustration of policymakers seeking soft... 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risk of a bigger and longer-lasting squeeze on real incomes The prospect of a bigger rise in utility prices in October and in the first half of 2023 means the risks to our forecast for CPI inflation to rise from June's 40-year high of 9.4% to a peak of 12.5%... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Not all price pressures are easing There have been growing signs that we are at the turning point in global inflation. Commodity prices and shipping costs are down both in y/y and level terms, while product shortages have alleviated as... 12th August 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy crisis hotting up The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal... 12th August 2022 · 5 mins read
