Japan Economics Weekly Much faster wage growth still needed We wouldn’t read much into the smaller pay hikes for employees of large manufacturing firms that have been agreed in this year’s Shunto wage negotiations. Wage growth for most workers looks set to... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The stronger than expected rise in the unemployment rate and the pick-up in the underutilisation rate, which is a broader measure of spare capacity, suggests that there is still plenty of slack in the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jan.) Today’s Labour Force Survey showed that job creation picked up in January. This adds to the evidence that occupier market conditions are likely to hold up fairly well this year. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The latest labour market data show that average earnings growth is not picking up alongside inflation, resulting in a squeeze on real wage growth. However, we think that the tightness of the labour... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth picking up Japan’s unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since the mid-1990s and the job-to-applicant ratio is approaching its bubble year peak. Regular wages are rising at the fastest pace in years, and... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) While employment rose by a moderate 15,300 in February, the bigger story was the massive 105,100 jump in full-time work, extending the run of better quality jobs lately. That adds to the evidence the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 235,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February will erase any lingering doubts that the Fed might not hike interest rates next week. It will also be greeted with a cheer from the White House. 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would make the RBA raise rates? Although we still believe that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be down, it is useful to consider what would need to happen to prompt the RBA to raise rates. Two scenarios stand out... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) The steady growth in overall labour cash earnings in January masks the strongest increase in base pay in almost two decades. Nonetheless, wages would still have to rise considerably faster to meet the... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey suggests that the recovery in industrial production has ground to a halt. It also suggests that the number of employed persons will expand at a slower pace in coming... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the immigration crackdown hit economic growth? President Donald Trump’s revised travel ban will have little impact on the wider economy. But his plans for a broader crackdown on immigration, which also include building a wall on the Mexican border... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys point to a strong Q1 Survey data for February suggest that euro-zone GDP growth accelerated in Q1 following two healthy quarterly gains of 0.4% in the second half of last year. After February’s rise, the PMI pointed to an... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan have to start tightening soon? Japan’s economy has performed well recently and inflation is set to rise sharply soon. But the spike in inflation won’t last and, with inflation expectations no higher now than when the Bank of Japan... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Signs of strong global growth continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that the strong start to the year continued in February. The global composite PMI remained close to a three-year high and is consistent with world GDP growth of... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Rising inflation starting to hit households Resilient consumer spending was the main reason why GDP growth held up so well in the wake of the Brexit vote. However, there have been signs that the exchange-rate induced rise in inflation is... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth firming, but downside risks abound The recent upturn in production activity and business confidence are encouraging signs for near-term growth prospects. There are still some big question marks, however. While first-quarter real GDP... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
