Europe Economics Update Is Macron’s 7% unemployment rate achievable? While we think that President Macron’s labour reform plans will be broadly successful, his target for France’s unemployment rate to fall to 7% by 2022 still seems overly ambitious. With his planned... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Finnish Labour Force Surveys (May) Swedish employment growth seems set to slow but the unemployment rate should nevertheless drift lower this year after being unchanged in May. And with over one third of firms suffering from a shortage... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s majority bodes well, but reform won’t be easy The results of the French parliamentary elections revealing that Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche has achieved a huge majority bode well for the French economy and for EU relations. But he... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow wage growth underscores need for policy support The latest labour market data paint a positive picture of employment conditions in the euro-zone. Indeed, in Q1 the level of euro-zone employment finally surpassed its pre-crisis peak. What’s more... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Part-time earnings point to mounting wage pressure Recent gains in the hourly wages of part-time workers are an early indication that the tight labour market is finally creating some upward pressure on wages. That would be a welcome development for... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate, but downside risks mounting In our baseline scenario, which still includes a fiscal stimulus early next year, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 2.2% this year to 2.5% in 2018. The downside risks to that scenario have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) The much stronger than anticipated rise in employment in May and the fall in the unemployment rate to a four-year low will go some way to quashing growing talk of the chance of another interest rate... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Apr.) & Employment (Q1) Euro-zone industry began Q2 on a positive note with a healthy rise in production in April and surveys point to an acceleration to come. Meanwhile, the region’s labour market recovery continued, with... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) Despite the significant recent erosion of slack in the labour market, wage growth has failed to keep up with inflation and will weigh on consumer spending this year. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Apr.) Today’s labour market data were full of mixed signals. Job creation was healthy and consistent with gently rising rents at the all-property level. But, with the squeeze on real incomes intensifying... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well placed to withstand Fed interest rate hikes The US Fed looks almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting later today. For most of Emerging Asia, higher rates in the US do not pose a major threat, even if the US Fed ends up hiking... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Has the natural unemployment rate fallen? A decline in frictional unemployment and shifts in the composition of the labour force, which is now on average older and better educated, mean that the so-called natural unemployment rate has fallen... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Consumer revival underway The recovery in Japan’s economy since early last year has mostly been driven by a surge in exports, but Japanese consumers also seem to be joining the party. Consumer spending is on track for another... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The impressive 54,500 increase in employment in May, which included a big increase in full-time jobs, will no doubt prompt louder calls for the Bank of Canada to hurry up and raise interest rates. But... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households getting a smaller share of the pie The share of the national income going to Australian households is at an eight-year low and is within a whisker of a 50-year low. What’s more, households in Australia currently get a smaller share of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Yellen may set out balance sheet plans as early as next week We expect the Fed will press ahead and raise interest rates for the third time in seven months at the FOMC meeting that concludes on 14th June. There is also a good chance that it announces formal... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
