US Economics Update Unemployment benefit expiry not a major threat The expiry of the remaining enhanced unemployment insurance programs at the end of the year would hit the incomes of the unemployed but would be unlikely to deal a major blow to the economy. With... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q3) The weakness in wage growth in Q3 was partly driven by the delay to the minimum wage increase but we still think overall wage growth will remain soft in the years ahead. 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
US Economics Focus Pandemic increases risk of high inflation The pandemic has increased the odds that the US will eventually experience a period of high inflation, principally because we expect the Fed to be less committed to ensuring price stability in the... 16th November 2020 · 32 mins read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of job retention schemes Recent extensions to job retention schemes and hopes of a vaccine appear to have improved the outlook for labour markets. But there is still a risk that governments scale back support too quickly and... 16th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How much slack is there in the labour market? Our measures of labour market slack suggest that the official unemployment rate is significantly understating how much spare capacity there is at the moment and will probably continue to do so for a... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How much slack is there in the labour market? Our measures of labour market slack suggest that the official unemployment rate is significantly understating how much spare capacity there is at the moment and will probably continue to do so for a... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) The latest data suggest that the broad-based acceleration of China’s economy continued in October. Policy stimulus continued to boost investment and industrial output while growth in real retail sales... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3), Int. Trade (Sep.) The second estimate that euro-zone GDP rose by 12.6% q/q in Q3 was little different to the “preliminary flash” estimate published a fortnight ago and means that GDP was 4.4% below its Q4 2019 level... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but clouds darken over Q4 The vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, the recent surge in virus cases in Switzerland, the rising strain on the healthcare sector... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rise in mortgage rates will temper housing demand The 30-year mortgage rate fell below 3% last week, but we doubt it will stay there for long. A rise in 10-year Treasury yields means mortgage rates will soon tick-up. That will weigh on housing demand... 12th November 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) September’s rise in the unemployment rate from 4.5% in August to 4.8% suggests that the previous scaling back of the furlough scheme took its toll. And the unemployment rate may yet climb to about 9%... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) September’s rise in the unemployment rate from 4.5% in August to 4.8% suggests that the previous scaling back of the furlough scheme took its toll. And the unemployment rate may yet climb to about 9%... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) The further surge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in October suggests that Q4 could surprise to the upside. However, further ahead the recovery will slow as the economy gets closer to pre-virus... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Lockdown and Brexit make for a bumpy Christmas The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that... 9th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) Employment growth slowed sharply in October, but the 84,000 gain was still impressive given that the renewed coronavirus-related restrictions caused employment to fall in some sectors. Moreover, the... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
