Event Drop-In: Global Inflation Watch – Bumpy ride back to target 8th May 2024, 3:00PM BST Is progress stalling on efforts to get inflation under control? Why are price pressures proving more stubborn than expected? When will central bankers get the genie back in the bottle? Our Global...
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q1) The persistence of wage growth is another reason for the Fed to take its time on rate cuts. According to the first-quarter employment cost index, civilian wages increased at a 1.1% non-annualised pace... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 24) China’s economy grew at a healthy pace in the first quarter of 2024. Our China Activity Proxy suggests this was on the back of strong external demand. While fiscal support should continue to keep the... 30th April 2024 · 0 mins read
China Economics Focus Overcapacity will keep inflation near zero Most analysts expect China’s inflation rate to rebound to around 2% by 2026. In contrast, we think that persistent imbalances between supply and demand will keep it close to zero for the foreseeable... 30th April 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) and Flash HICP (April) Today’s stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP data means the euro-zone has come out of recession but, with core and services inflation both declining in April, this will not prevent the ECB from starting its... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike in May, no rate cuts until 2025 We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, in contrast to the consensus view that the Bank will remain on hold. Given the RBA’s ostensible resolve to... 30th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How the Bank of England will respond to UK inflation’s rapid retreat 1715263200 Despite global panic about the DM inflation outlook, we still think that price pressures in the UK are set to fade faster than most assume, opening the way for the Bank of Eng
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey & Germany State CPI (April 2024) The weaker-than-expected EC business and consumer survey for Ap ril is a reminder that the euro-zone economy is still weak. Meanwhile, the survey and inflation figures for Germany and Spain confirm... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in April, but our regional GDP-weighted measure of sentiment rose to a fresh two-year high... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The shortfalls of the Monthly CPI Indicator The different treatment of prices collected annually is a key reason why the quarterly CPI measure rose much faster last quarter than the Monthly CPI Indicator had indicated. While it’s possible to... 29th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly No SARB rate cuts in 2024, SSA subsidy removal The SARB’s biannual Monetary Policy Review published this week, which showed less confidence in South Africa’s disinflation trend and reiterated the desire to move to a lower inflation target... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine gets a boost, but funding fatigue still a risk The $61bn US aid package for Ukraine approved this week will provide a much needed boost to Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield, but the delays that the funding has faced over recent months casts a... 26th April 2024 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s drought, Argentina’s anti-austerity protests Recent rainfall has provided some relief to drought-hit Colombia, but with reservoir levels still perilously low, risks to hydropower generation - and consequently activity and inflation - continue to... 26th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (April 2024) The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for the first half of this month, of 3.8% y/y, and signs of softening underlying core price pressures might just be enough to give Copom... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Mar.) The slightly bigger-than-expected 3.7% annualised first-quarter gain in the core PCE deflator was principally because January’s gain was revised up to 0.50% from 0.45%. Nevertheless, the 0.32%... 26th April 2024 · 1 min read
