Global Economics Update Your questions after the latest central bank meetings We recently held an online Drop-In session to discuss the December policy meetings and the outlook for monetary policy in the year ahead. (See a recording here.) This Update answers several of the... 18th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s belt tightening, Chile votes, LatAm & the Fed The fiscal tightening announced by Argentina's new administration this week is a step in the right direction but, with public discontent set to intensify, the government's commitment to fiscal... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia default, SA activity, Ghana inflation fall Ethiopia’s sovereign default appears imminent after the government missed a coupon payment on its 2024 Eurobond this week. The prominence of Chinese and private bondholders in Africa continues to... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker activity and employment Although the flash PMIs ticked up in most cases in December, they suggest that advanced economies will start 2024 on a weak footing. Meanwhile, outside of the US, the subdued outlook for demand seems... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2023) EM GDP growth has started to weaken, and we expect activity to enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. While some economies that underperformed this year will start to recover, many of the EMs... 15th December 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected fall in Israeli inflation to 3.3% y/y in November suggests that the inflationary impact of the war and the sharp rise in government spending have been limited so far. This... 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s central banks push back against rate cut bets In contrast to the Fed, the ECB pushed back this week against expectations that it would start to cut interest rates in early 2024. But we still think that a weak economy and continued declines in... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to reach 28.2% y/y in November, as the naira’s weakening continued to pass through. Aggressive interest rate hikes are needed to stabilise tackle... 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged... 15th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec. 2023) The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 50.7 in November to 51.7 in December, increased the chances of the economy avoiding a contraction in Q4. But the stickiness of price pressures will... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration curbs won’t adversely dent labour supply The ongoing boom in net overseas migration to Australia is helping to take the heat out of the labour market. With public attitudes towards mass migration souring, the government announced this week... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Overheating in services adds to case for tighter policy The Tankan revealed that capacity shortages in the services sector are now just as pronounced as they were before the pandemic. The survey also suggested that inflationary pressures in non... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB holding the line for now The ECB left interest rates on hold today and pushed back against expectations that it will start cutting rates as soon as March next year. However, we think inflation and GDP growth will be lower... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov. 23) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate rose a touch, from 1.6% y/y in October to 1.7% y/y in November, which is still low by the standards of the past two years. And we think disinflation will resume... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
