UK Economics Weekly The good news on inflation should continue in 2024 It is striking that the big fall in UK CPI inflation so far has followed the US closely, albeit with a six month lag. This reflects the fact there have been common drivers of inflation across advanced... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2024 In our final Weekly of 2023 we explore three key themes for the coming year - when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, the economic impact of the general election, and the outlook for the... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will wait until March before hiking rates Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicated this week that the Bank won’t make any policy changes at its upcoming meeting in January as it wants to see the results of next year’s spring wage negotiations... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Shipping disruption unlikely to alter inflation’s course The rerouting of trade ships away from the Red Sea has come at a time of disruption to shipping elsewhere in the world, but it is unlikely to alter the broad pattern of falling core inflation in 2024... 21st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB behind the curve; new EU fiscal rules The latest core inflation data suggest that ECB policymakers will be forced to cut interest rates sooner than they currently think. Meanwhile, the EU has agreed new budget rules, but we suspect that... 21st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (December 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico... 20th December 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile and Colombia cut rates and more easing to come The decisions yesterday by Colombia’s central bank to kick off its easing cycle and by Chile’s to accelerate the pace of easing appears to have been driven by the substantial improvement in the... 20th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Nov. 2023) For the second month in a row, the falls in CPI inflation from 4.6% in October to 3.9% in November (consensus forecast 4.4%, CE 4.5%, BoE 4.6%) and services CPI inflation from 6.6% to 6.3% (CE... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov.) The renewed acceleration in core inflation pressures in November was largely due to a jump in travel tour prices, which is likely to be quickly reversed. Nonetheless, by highlighting the continued... 19th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Domestic price pressures are strong but easing Last week, Christine Lagarde cited high wage growth and “domestic inflation” as reasons for the ECB to keep interest rates high. While domestic price pressures are easing, it will take several months... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe in 2024 and an... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Risks to our 2024 outlook There is considerable uncertainty surrounding our forecast that GDP will increase by 1.2% next year, but we have a relatively high conviction in our call that core PCE inflation will be very close to... 18th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be... 18th December 2023 · 0 mins read
