Global Inflation Watch

Will the last mile be the hardest?

The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in...

18th January 2024 · 16 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB to push back against early rate cut bets

The ECB is certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week, leaving the deposit rate at 4%, and we expect Christine Lagarde to push back against expectations for rate cuts in the first half of this...

18th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait...

18th January 2024 · 1 min read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government...

17th January 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Domestic price pressures easing but from high level

The latest euro-zone inflation data, published this morning, will dampen policymakers’ concerns about the strength of domestic price pressures. But with underlying inflation still too high for comfort...

17th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2023)

The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.9% in November to 4.0% in December (consensus and CE forecast 3.8%) is disappointing. But we still expect favourable base effects and a fall in utility...

17th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect GDP growth to slow to a crawl this year, weighed down by weak consumption growth and...

17th January 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Stubborn rental inflation won’t prevent RBA rate cuts

In recent months, there have been growing concerns that the rapid rise in rental inflation will force the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates higher for longer. To be sure, leading indicators...

17th January 2024 · 15 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Dec.)

Although the rise in headline inflation in December was mainly due to gasoline price base effects, the more worrying development is that the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures both rose by a larger...

16th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Surveys show inflation expectations are still too high

The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys continue to flash warning signs about the outlook for the economy and labour market. The normalisation of inflation expectations remains...

15th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: Australia Q4 CPI and the case for an early RBA cut

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There’s a popular view that the RBA won’t start cutting interest rates until later in the second half of this year.

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to 28.9% y/y in December, as a weak naira continues to push up prices. Aggressive interest rate hikes are long overdue in order to bring inflation under...

15th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec. 23)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 1.7% y/y in November to 1.5% y/y in December, the weakest pace recorded since January 2022. And we expect inflation to continue to ease at the start...

15th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Focus

Services inflation will moderate again

While most of the recent pick-up in services inflation has been driven by just a handful of components, there’s been an upward shift in the distribution of price changes across the CPI basket. However...

15th January 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The small fall in Russian inflation to 7.4% y/y in December is likely to be temporary, and we still think that the central bank’s tightening cycle has further to run. We expect a 100bp rate hike (to...

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read