China Chart Pack Policymakers trying to revive property sales China’s beleaguered property developers may soon see some respite both from their inability to borrow at reasonable rates and from sliding property sales. Last week, PBOC Governor said that the... 30th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Consumer staples stocks may outperform again Even if high inflation continues to put downward pressure on profit margins, we still suspect that the consumer staples sector in the US will be a relative bright spot against a backdrop of... 27th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s economy and central bank chief under pressure The rumours (subsequently denied) that Nigeria’s central bank governor had been sacked after delivering an interest rate hike raise further questions over the CBN’s independence. Even if the governor... 27th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore inflation worries, BBM taking the right steps Rising inflation and a strong economy have fuelled talk that monetary policy in Singapore will need to be tightened further. But we think the backdrop will have changed by the time the Monetary... 27th May 2022 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Shifting policy mix The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this month with a 40bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.40%) in an unscheduled policy announcement. The minutes to that meeting show that several MPC members are... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring inflation to trump sluggish activity for RBA While the economic data released this week were a mixed bag, we think that soaring inflation will trump any slowdown in activity. Indeed, with wholesale electricity prices surging to record highs, it... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation still rising With core CPI inflation still rising, the Bank of Canada has no choice but to continue hiking its policy rate “forcefully’ back toward neutral. All three of the core measures tracked by the Bank are... 26th May 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chancellor supports household incomes, but boosts inflation The extra financial support for households announced by the Chancellor today will help millions of households cope better with the cost of living crisis. But it won’t relieve all the pain and may mean... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the decline in inflation compensation We don’t expect long-term inflation compensation to continue to tumble, and think long-term government bond yields will bounce back before long. 26th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia election: judging the opportunities and risks Colombia’s upcoming presidential election could result in the country’s first left-wing government in recent decades, headed by Gustavo Petro. While he is unlikely to be as radical as many expect... 26th May 2022 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Monetary tightening stepped up A majority of central banks in the region hiked interest rates over the past month. In the Gulf, central banks raised interest rates in line with the Federal Reserve, although this won’t necessarily... 26th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea will remain hawkish, in the short term The decision by the Bank of Korea (BoK) to hike its policy rate by 25bps, to 1.75%, is likely to be followed by more hikes to tackle elevated inflation. But the Bank is set to turn more dovish further... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update War in Ukraine inflames food insecurity in Africa The outsize role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan African economies and the tendency to rely on imported food products makes the region particularly vulnerable to the agricultural shock caused by the war... 25th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ confirms hiking cycle to be followed by cuts The RBNZ sounded hawkish when it hiked rates by 50bp today, and we now think rates will rise to 3.5% by the end of this year. But the Bank endorsed our long-held non-consensus view that rate cuts will... 25th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2022) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 12.2% y/y in the middle of May, supports our view that there will be another 75pb of hikes in the current tightening cycle (to 13.50%). Investors seem to... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) While Mexico’s headline inflation edged down to 7.6% y/y in the first two weeks of May, this will provide little comfort to the central bank as price pressures remain stubbornly strong. The risks are... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
