Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate remained close to the upper bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range in April, at 5.9% y/y, and will stay there over the coming months. Tomorrow’s interest... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Apr.) If the rise in CPI inflation from 7.0% to a 40-year high of 9.0% in April wasn’t bad enough, inflation will probably rise further to 10% in October and will then fall back to the 2% target only slowly... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What would tighter monetary policy mean for Japan? We don’t expect the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy meaningfully but, with inflation about to breach 2%, what if we are wrong? The direct impact of higher interest rates on the corporate... 18th May 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia to remain inflation outlier Despite surging global food and fuel prices, inflation across most of Emerging Asia looks set to remain relatively low. This is the key reason why tightening cycles in the region will be much more... 17th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption to surge even as real incomes fall We now expect Australia’s inflation to rise by more than 6% this year. Even allowing for an acceleration in earnings growth and a further solid rise in employment as immigration resumes, that will... 17th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Update Fall in house prices to contribute to lower CPI inflation The 10% fall in house prices that we expect over the next 12 months will also help to pull down CPI inflation, via its impact on shelter costs. Admittedly, shelter inflation is unlikely to decline... 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation surge not just a food and energy story Higher food and energy prices go some way to explaining the rise in headline inflation rates across the emerging world, but this is only part of the story. Core inflation has also jumped in many EMs... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Next Brexit bust-up risks adding to inflation The UK government’s plan to use domestic legislation to overwrite parts of the Brexit Northern Ireland Protocol risks creating another headwind for the economy and exacerbating price pressures at a... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is a recession necessary to bring down inflation? Provided that supply-related price rises ease, we think that it is possible in theory for central banks to bring inflation down from its current high rates without engineering a recession. However... 16th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 16.8% y/y last month and the headline rate is likely to rise further as spillovers from the war in Ukraine filter through. Pressure to tighten monetary policy is... 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Russian inflation came in broadly as expected in April, rising from 16.7% y/y to a two-decade high of 17.8% y/y and it looks like further increases in the coming months will be modest. This will... 13th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rising CPI expectations occupying minds at Riksbank Just as policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, the rise in expectations in Sweden is giving the Riksbank plenty to fret about too. The Bank’s preferred... 13th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Gasoline price jump to drive CPI inflation above 7% The unexpected further jump in gasoline prices, reflecting a sharp widening of refiners’ margins, means we now expect headline CPI inflation to rise above 7% in May. While the rise in refiners’... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation looking better under the hood Fed officials will have been eyeing the flood of red on their screens this week with a growing sense of foreboding. Admittedly, for GDP growth to slow and inflation to fall, they want financial... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack High inflation is hurting real spending Recent data have shown the firmest evidence yet that high inflation is damaging real consumer spending in advanced economies. Real retail sales fell in the US, UK, and euro-zone in March, while... 13th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Minimum wage to rise by 4% this year Suggestions by Labor leader Albanese that minimum wage increases in line with inflation plus productivity growth are sustainable are wide of the mark at a time when consumer prices are rising twice as... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
