Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in inflation in South Africa, to 7.6% y/y in August, marked the first sign that price pressures are turning a corner. But we doubt this will be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to scale... 21st September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Disinflationary wave is building The Fed looks set to deliver a third consecutive 75bp rate hike tomorrow, but if we’re right that inflation will fall back soon, officials will quickly pivot to much smaller hikes. The continued drop... 20th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The larger-than-expected falls in headline and core inflation in August suggest that the Bank of Canada will enact a smaller interest rate hike in October, particularly with the labour market now... 20th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2022) Headline inflation jumped in August to yet another three-decade high and it still has a stretch higher to climb. That said, the Bank of Japan will remain steadfast in maintaining its ultra-easy... 20th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fuel subsidies, Brazil’s presidential race The commitment of Colombia’s new administration to address costly energy subsidies is the fiscally responsible thing to do, but it will come at the expense of exacerbating the country’s inflation... 16th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation divergence, Turkey’s BoP puzzle The latest batch of inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides support to our view that tightening cycles in Czechia and Poland are at an end, but that Hungary’s central bank will... 16th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 22) 16th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (August) Final inflation data for August confirm that price pressures are very strong and broad-based. While energy and food inflation are particularly high, measures of underlying and domestic inflation are... 16th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will deliver another 50bp rate hike RBA Governor Lowe reiterated today that the Bank will slow the pace of tightening at some point. But his hawkish comments on the health of consumer spending and the labour market suggest that this... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stealth intervention would be costly With the yen falling to a 24-year low against the dollar, the government this week requested exchange rate quotes from the banks which some see as a precursor to intervention. Apart from the Ministry... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Peak inflation and the prospects for equities Although we think this week’s disappointing CPI report in the US is just a bump on the road towards much lower inflation, and that today’s rather disappointing news on retail sales and industrial... 15th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate surpassed 20% y/y for the first time in 17 years in August and we think that this will prompt the central bank to respond with a 50bp increase to its benchmark... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi inflation rose to 3.0% y/y in August largely on the back of stronger non-food inflation, but we think that the headline rate is close to its peak and will slow over the rest of this year and... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Major economies struggling for different reasons The latest data have revealed that the world’s major economies are all struggling, but for different reasons. In Europe, the energy crisis is largely behind the recent softness in consumer and... 14th September 2022 · 13 mins read
