Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Price pressures to keep central banks in hawkish mood Consumer price inflation has continued to accelerate in Switzerland and across the Nordics, adding to the pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy more aggressively. In Switzerland... 14th September 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) Despite CPI inflation easing from 10.1% in July to 9.9% in August, inflation has not peaked yet. We think CPI inflation will rise to 11.0% later this year and that the tight labour market will keep... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Aug.) The continued increase in inflation in August, with the core rate hitting its highest level since December 1991, will keep the Riksbank in hawkish mode. We had expected the Bank to raise its repo rate... 14th September 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Coal shortages could take steam out of economy India is facing renewed concerns about energy supply, fuelled by low inventories of coal. With the economy very reliant on coal for electricity generation, persistent shortages would almost certainly... 13th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m increase in core consumer prices in August, double the consensus expectation, confirms that the Fed will hike its policy rate by at least 75bp next week. Nevertheless, that outsized... 13th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation may not rise, even if oil prices do US inflation compensation has declined over recent weeks as oil prices have fallen back. But this relationship isn’t set in stone and, even if oil prices rise again, inflation compensation may not. 12th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions on Europe’s energy crisis response European policymakers have been discussing how to tackle skyrocketing energy prices in the region to ease the financial pain for households and firms this winter. In this Update, we answer five key... 12th September 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The rise in Indian CPI inflation in August to further above the RBI’s 2-6% target range should ensure that the central bank delivers another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.90%) in its meeting at the... 12th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) & GDP (Q2) Inflation continued to fall sharply in Russia in August, to 14.3% y/y, and there’s little standing in the way of another interest rate cut by the central bank next week. We expect a 50bp reduction to... 9th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile goes back to the drawing board The surprisingly strong rejection of Chile’s proposed new constitution has eased concerns about a radical shake up of the country’s economic model. But the constitutional process is set to continue... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will pivotal CPI data sway hawkish Fed? In the run-up to the Fed’s next policy announcement on 21 st September, the release of August’s consumer price data next Tuesday could still be pivotal in determining whether the Fed will follow the... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2022) Brazil’s headline inflation rate fell to a 14-month low of 8.7% y/y in August, but hawkish comments from the central bank this week support our view that there will be one final 25bp interest rate... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession on the cards, but ECB goes big regardless The ECB delivered a chunky 75bp rate hike this week and signalled more large rate rises are to come even as it acknowledged that the euro-zone economy was likely to fall into recession. That’s... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly No tightening even if yen stays near 145 Policymakers ratcheted up their verbal intervention as the yen weakened this week but the bar to more direct action is high. We don’t think the Bank of Japan would be too concerned if the yen remained... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
