Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q2) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th May 2022 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) Headline consumer price inflation surged beyond even our above-consensus forecast to an eight-year high of 7.8% y/y in April. Given that it is likely to rise even higher over the coming months... 12th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in April was partly due to high energy and food prices but also because of broadening price pressures. We expect the core rate to remain above... 12th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The falls in headline and core inflation in April marks the beginning of a sustained decline, as base effects improve and supply shortages ease, although the 0.6% monthly jump in core prices indicates... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr. 2022) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 12.1% y/y in April was driven by a broad based increase in price pressures and supports our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has further to run. We... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Food inflation to ease from high rates The sharp rise in agricultural commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine has boosted food inflation to a multi-decade high, adding 0.6%-pts to average inflation in advanced economies compared... 11th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia will go slow following early hike Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised its main policy rate earlier than many had expected today, but given low inflation and a continued need to support the recovery, we still think that the tightening... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Large pot of pandemic savings to collect dust The hit to household incomes from higher inflation will be much smaller in Japan than elsewhere and consumers have plenty of pandemic forced savings to tap into to sustain spending. But we nonetheless... 11th May 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer prices rose at a faster pace last month. But inflation remains relatively subdued and there are already signs in the producer price data of upstream price pressures easing. As such, inflation... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Wage growth will rise further before it falls The 6% rise in the minimum wage will help lift wage growth further this year. But a loosening labour market and smaller minimum wage hikes in the years ahead will facilitate a slow down in wage growth... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weaker economy yet to dent price expectations The weaker economic outlook triggered by the surge in CPI inflation to a 30-year high of 7.0% in March has yet to put a dent in businesses own expectations for their selling prices. The Bank of... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation chipping away at public debt ratios One benefit of the current rise in inflation, at least for governments, is that it is eroding the real value of public sector debt. But this will reverse only a small part of the pandemic-related rise... 10th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: five questions and answers on the crisis The resignation yesterday of the prime minister, the postponement of talks with the IMF, surging inflation and the collapse of the currency are just some of the many problems facing Sri Lanka. In this... 10th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising inflation expectations causing alarm Policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, with professional forecasters, financial investors, consumers and firms all anticipating that the pace of price... 10th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-three year high of 13.1% y/y in April on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and effects of the devaluation of the pound. Inflation will... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected increase in core inflation in April raises the chances that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening at its next rate decision, in June. Markets Drop-In (11 th... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
