Japan Chart Pack Another intervention wouldn’t reverse yen weakness With the yen currently trading just below 149, it now appears to be a question of when and not if policymakers step in again. But as recent weeks and the Asian Financial Crisis have shown, such... 17th October 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s public finances, ups and downs of SA industry The shelf life of Nigeria’s recently presented budget plans is likely to be short with elections due in early-2023 and no guarantee about policy continuity. Any new administration will not only have... 14th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Monetary tightening coming to an end This week Chile’s central bank became the latest in Latin America to bring its tightening cycle to an end. But while there are signs that price pressures are now starting to ease in the region, most... 14th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to keep hiking until inflation subsides We still think it’s only a matter of time before the easing of inflationary pressure evident in the surveys and other private-sector data shows up in the official figures. But the September CPI report... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hawks dominate, French strikes fuel pay pressure Even the hawks on the ECB Governing Council have seemed reluctant to call publicly for a 100bp hike at the Bank’s late-October meeting, but we still think that is the most likely decision and expect... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s housing market, Swiss price pressures Data released this week show that the Riksbank is in a tricky situation, with consumer price inflation accelerating but the housing market looking very weak. Other data suggest that core inflation in... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What still-hot inflation means for US Treasuries Despite the hot September US CPI print from yesterday, we still expect Treasury yields to drop back over time. And we think the drop will mostly be driven by falls in the real yield, rather than... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly MoF winding up for another intervention The yen weakened below its 1998 trough today, with no explicit intervention in response from the Ministry of Finance. That doesn't mean it won't step in again, but it appears to be more concerned... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation to an 18-month low in September comes as welcome news following the stronger-than-expected consumer price data released earlier thi s week. And with... 14th October 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Consumer price inflation rose to a 29-month high in September and is now scraping up against the government’s preferred ceiling of 3%. But this was due to a rise in food inflation that is likely to... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The stronger than expected 0.4% rise in consumer prices in September, driven yet again by a stronger increase in core prices, nails on a 75bp rate hike at the November meeting and, in contrast to the... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
India Economic Outlook Pace of tightening set to slow The RBI has frontloaded policy tightening over recent months but with inflation peaking and economic headwinds building, we think the central bank will now slow the pace of tightening and revert to... 13th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: tightening cycle has ended but rates will stay high Chile’s central bank (BCCh) became the latest in the emerging world to end its tightening cycle yesterday. But with inflation only likely to fall back towards target in late-2023 and the external... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
