Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (June) The stronger-than-expected rise in inflation to 7.9% in the first two weeks of June adds to the pressure on Banxico to fight stubbornly strong price pressures. We think Banxico will step up the pace... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: knock knock, anybody there? High inflation, falls in the lira and aggressive monetary tightening elsewhere are clearly not enough to persuade Turkey’s central bank to lift interest rates, as it left its policy rate at 14.00%... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest more frontloading is in store The minutes of the MPC’s June meeting – in which the repo rate was hiked by 50bps to 4.90% – show that combatting inflation remains the priority and suggest that tightening will continue to be... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The jump in CPI inflation to 7.7% in May all but guarantees that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by a larger 75 bp next month, particularly with inflation on track to accelerate to over 8... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack FX intervention from a position of strength The rupee has held up better than most EM currencies this month and the recent drop in FX reserves strongly indicates that this is in part because the RBI has once again ramped up its FX interventions... 22nd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) The rise in inflation in South Africa to an above-target 6.5% y/y in May is likely to shift the debate to a choice between a 50bp and a 75bp hike to interest rates at July’s MPC meeting. But inflation... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (May) The further rise in CPI inflation from 9.0% in April to a new 40-year high of 9.1% in May won’t prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rates further, but it may encourage it to opt again... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Where next for inflation in South Africa? Inflation in South Africa has been close to the top of the central bank’s target range in recent months, but the country has avoided the surge in inflation seen across much of the world. And there are... 21st June 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack BoJ at the barricades While inflation is still far lower in Japan than in most places, rapid increases in the prices of some everyday purchases have made it a political focus. A Nikkei poll following the Bank of Japan’s... 21st June 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation broadening out Central and Eastern European economies are experiencing their worst bout of inflation since the late-1990s as surging food and energy prices have added to strong core price pressures across a broad... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights to push inflation above 8% The new CPI weights outlined this week mean that inflation will peak at more than 8% in June, which is higher than we previously expected. That further raises the chance of the Bank of Canada... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More on the SNB; Norges Bank to hike by 50bp Even after the strong gains in the franc against the euro and US dollar after yesterday’s SNB rate hike, the Swiss real effective exchange rate is still about 5% below its level in early 2020 when the... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why didn’t the BoE go further and what next? In some ways, given its concerns about the weakening in the real economy, the Bank of England's decision not to follow the Fed and raise rates by more than 25 basis points makes sense. But with more... 17th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (May) Final inflation data for May confirm that the headline and core rates both rose to record highs. The recent increases in gas and agricultural commodity prices will keep the headline rate higher than... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures keep building The big minimum wage hike announced by the fair work commission this week will lead to higher wage growth over the coming year. Given the tightness in the labour market and rising cost pressures... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
