Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022) 26th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (October 2022) The drop in Brazilian inflation to an 18-month low of 6.9% y/y in the first half of October reinforces the view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is at an end. Even so, the strength of... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
US Economics Update Is wage growth still accelerating? The outperformance of wage growth for those moving jobs is not a signal that overall wage growth is set to accelerate. The decline in job quits and in the share of firms planning pay rises suggests... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 8.5% y/y in October was a bit weaker than expected and, while core inflation edged up again, this was mainly driven by food products. With the Fed still in a... 24th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Oct.) The decline in the composite flash PMI to 47.2 in October took it further below the boom-bust level of 50.0, placing it deeper into contraction territory. This is consistent with recent data that... 24th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Policy rate heading toward 5% The data released this week showed that higher interest rates are yet to have much of a negative impact on construction or consumption and that core inflation is proving stickier than anticipated... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Europe’s renewables push to stoke “greenflation” Although the energy crisis in Europe has dealt a blow to the EU’s near-term green ambitions, a combination of economic incentives, NextGenEU funding, and geopolitical expediency will cause the bloc to... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan economy now in fourth place, but not for long With the yen reaching a 14-year low against the euro, we estimate that Germany's GDP has overtaken Japan's in US$-terms. However, as the yen is now more severely undervalued relative to fundamentals... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 2022) Headline inflation remained at a three-decade high in September and will climb slightly higher by early 2023. That said, the Bank of Japan will remain steadfast in maintaining its ultra-easy monetary... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch Strong case for 100bp rate hike The ECB is certain to opt for another bumper rate hike next week and, on balance, we think that policymakers are most likely to go for 100bp. A hike of that size will probably be a one-off as they... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Will the Bank of Canada stop hiking sooner than the market thinks? 1666800000 Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, and Stephen Brown, who leads our coverage of Canada’s economy, held a client briefing shortly after the BoC’s October meeting.
Event ANZ Drop-In: When will Australian inflation peak? 1666764000 Economists from our ANZ and Global Markets teams were online shortly after the release of Q3 CPI data for a 20-minute briefing in which they answered client questions and addressed key issues, incl
