UK Economics Chart Pack Resilient, but recession still likely Recent data suggest the economy’s resilient end to 2022 was sustained at the start of this year. But while the worst of the falls in real household incomes are in the past, we still think around two... 5th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 6.9% in March, confirms that inflation is now on a clear downward trajectory. But services inflation is showing no signs of easing, which will... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMIs suggest that the economy expanded in Q1. They also point to further gains in employment and strong price pressures. With the turmoil in the banking sector having stabilised, this makes us... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly External demand weakness has further to run Firms expect the recent weakness in external demand to last another quarter at least, according to the BoJ’s latest Tankan survey. That should drag on business investment as well and cause the economy... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will send New Zealand into recession The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 50bp, to 5.25%, came as an upside surprise, but we still think the end of the hiking cycle is approaching. In any case... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook First to hike, first to cut Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally... 4th April 2023 · 27 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will deliver one final rate hike in May The Reserve Bank of Australia kept open the possibility of further tightening when it decided to leave its cash rate unchanged at 3.60% today. As such, we do still expect the RBA to deliver one final... 4th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs: weaker activity and inflation The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity was broadly flat in Q1, and confirm that the post-COVID rebound in China was concentrated in the service sector. The upside is... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing remains subdued The manufacturing PMIs for March made for pretty downbeat reading in most EMs and the outlook for the coming months remains lacklustre. One source of comfort however is that, at an EM level, price... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) There was plenty to be encouraged by in the Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys, with firms’ sales expectations holding up even as labour and other capacity pressures eased considerably... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The OPEC+ oil cuts and what they mean for MENA The surprise announcement of a further 1.66mn bpd cut to oil output by OPEC+ will reduce GDP growth mechanically in the Gulf economies by around 1-2%-pts this year, although the corresponding rise in... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Uneven consumer recovery slowing down Consumer spending jumped during the first two months of the year as virus disruptions faded. The March retail sales data won’t be published for another couple of weeks. But the data we have so far... 3rd April 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Turkey CPI (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs for March were weak in Czechia and Poland and suggest that industry remained in recessionary territory in Q1. But there were some bright spots, including the marked improvement in... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Inflation falls sharply, but interest rates set to rise further. March’s sharp fall in headline inflation in Switzerland will provide some relief for the SNB as the decrease was spread across a wide range of goods. However, underlying price pressures remain strong... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q1 2023) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector remains resilient, the outlook for the manufacturing sector has worsened materially. 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
