Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (December) The further recovery in the ZEW in December confirms that sentiment in Germany has improved a bit, but it remains at a very low level and we still think Germany is now already in a recession. 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to expect if US inflation really has peaked? The real returns from both US equities and 10-year Treasuries have often been quite good in the couple of years after past peaks in core inflation in the US, but the period following peak inflation in... 12th December 2022 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharper-than-expected drop in headline CPI inflation in November (to 5.9% y/y) pulls it below the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s 2-6% target range for the first time in almost a year. We maintain... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and weak real income growth will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. With New Zealand’s central bank determined to... 12th December 2022 · 26 mins read
Japan Economics Update Food import price aftershocks to affect 2023 We expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target through the middle of next year despite government utility price caps and falling non-food inflation over that period. One reason is... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Russian inflation fell further last month, to 12.0% y/y, and the breakdown provided further signs that demand remains very weak. But this won’t offset the central bank’s concerns about pro-inflation... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A failed coup d’état, inflation worries, Lula’s fiscal plans The end of Castillo’s chaotic presidency in Peru may bring some near-term relief to investors, but it won’t solve the country’s dysfunctional political system. Political gridlock is here to stay and... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed could be upstaged by CPI data The Fed is used to holding centre stage, but next Wednesday’s policy announcement could end up being overshadowed by the November CPI data, due for release on Tuesday. If we’re right and core prices... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary fending off another crisis, weak activity data The decision by Hungary’s government to abandon its cap on petrol and diesel prices this week adds to what has already been a sharp withdrawal of government support in recent months. Hungary’s economy... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth strong; recession underway Policymakers may have taken some heart from the latest data published by Indeed which suggests that wage growth has started to edge down. However, wage growth is still very strong and other measures... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB and Norges Bank to hike on “Super Thursday” We expect the Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank to raise interest rates next Thursday, by 25bp and 50bp respectively, bringing an end to the tightening cycle for the SNB and getting close to the end... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2022) The further fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.9% y/y, last month will help to ease the squeeze on household incomes. But with the prices of many core goods and services still rising rapidly and, more... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Good news on inflation (except in the Philippines) The past week has brought mostly good news on the inflation front. Of the nine countries in the region to have reported November inflation figures, the y/y rate dropped or was stable in eight of them... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Nov.) The declines in headline and core inflation in November won’t stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates by 25bp next week. But they support our view that the tightening cycle is very nearly... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Consumer price inflation dropped to its lowest in eight months in November and producer price inflation stayed at a 23-month low. The shift away from zero-COVID could put some upward pressure on... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
