Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s stronger-than-expected inflation data pose an upside risk to our forecast for the policy rate to peak at 3%. But with house prices falling, the Norges Bank faces a tricky balancing act. 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in Russia fell more sharply than expected in October, to 12.6% y/y, but this won’t be enough to prompt the central bank to restart its easing cycle as policymakers are concerned about... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in at a weaker-than-expected 8.4% y/y in October and, while this is unlikely to prevent Banxico from delivering another 75pb interest rate hike, to 10.00%... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Consumer price inflation eased last month from September’s 29-month high and remained below the government’s preferred ceiling of 3%. It is set to stay low by global standards over the coming quarters... 9th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to keep hiking as stagflation intensifies The latest activity indicators show that the economy contracted in October, and the forward-looking measures of new orders and expectations suggest that the downturn will get worse. We have pencilled... 8th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth/inflation trade-off now a major test in Poland The Polish central bank’s dovish monetary policy stance is becoming increasingly at odds with the severity of inflation pressures and this reinforces our long-held view that inflation won’t return to... 8th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy price caps could knock off 1%-pt from inflation The proposed price caps on thermal coal and natural gas would knock off around one to 1.25%-pts from overall inflation though the full impact would only materialise in the second half of next year. 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Monetary policy will be loosened next year With inflation surprising to the upside in Q3, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to revise up its near-term forecasts for inflation in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy. What’s more, the... 7th November 2022 · 12 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s dovish turn is still coming, eventually This week’s FOMC meeting may have dashed hopes that the Fed will follow the recent dovish tilts of some other central banks. But we still think Fed officials are underestimating the degree to which... 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Peak rates approaching in Norway, Switzerland The Norges Bank shifted to a slower pace of tightening this week, and the latest data on the housing market suggest that there are downside risks to our forecast for the policy rate to hit 3% and stay... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doubting the BoE’s dovish tilt It may seem odd that we are still forecasting interest rates to rise from 3.00% to 5.00% when the Bank of England said this week that it expects rates to peak between 3.00% and 4.00%. But what happens... 4th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Will October CPI justify more hawkish noises from the Fed? 1668092400 Our US Economics team held a briefing shortly after the October data release, in which they answered client questions and addressed key issues around what was happening at the Fed and Congress, inc
UK Economics Update Joining the 75bps club, but strong signal rates won’t rise to 5.25% Although the Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates today by 75 basis points, from 2.25% to a 14-year high of 3.00%, it sent the strongest signal yet that it thinks rates won’t need to rise... 3rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI tightening will continue on schedule The RBI’s out-of-cycle meeting today concluded with no decision on interest rates. That’s no surprise – it was called for administrative reasons, rather than as a response to changing economic... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
