Japan Economics Weekly Weak yen and COVID not to blame for Q3 GDP fall Q3 saw a surprise contraction in GDP that many media outlets blamed on the surge in virus cases and the slide in the yen’s value during the quarter. We think instead that the real culprits were a... 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth still not a major driver of price pressures Even though wage growth surpassed 3% for the first time since 2012 last quarter, and unemployment is back at a record low, the tight labour market has not been a major driver of the recent surge in... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 2022) Headline inflation set a new three-decade high in October on aggressive rises in food inflation excluding fresh food and will remain near those highs this quarter. That said, government support... 18th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Governor Ingves to go out with a (75bp) bang With inflation still more than five times the Riksbank’s target, Stefan Ingves may be tempted to end his marathon stint as Governor with another 100bp rate hike. But we think the Bank is more likely... 17th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Core inflation will stay above 2% until 2025 Next year will be characterised by falling headline inflation, which should help to prevent interest rate expectations and bond yields from rising much further. But we also expect core inflation to... 17th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (October) Final inflation data for October confirm that price pressures strengthened and became more broad-based. Unlike in the US and UK, there is little sign that goods inflation has passed its peak. While... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov.) The plunge in new home sales in Toronto in September points to further falls in housing starts, although there are at least some signs that the worst may be behind us for home sales and that the... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Although the annual rates of CPI-median and CPI-trim edged up in October, the 3-month annualised rates that the Bank of Canada is now focussed on declined. As that for CPI-median is now in the 1% to 3... 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch Rates will peak at 5.0% but will be cut by end-2023 With the labour market and inflation going from strength to strength and the next meeting three months away, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the overnight cash rate by 75bp at its... 16th November 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) It’s possible that the big leap in CPI inflation from 10.1% in September to a new 40-year high of 11.1% in October will mark the peak. But core inflation may yet rise further, which is why we think... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Data out of Nigeria showing a pick-up in inflation to 21.1% y/y in October offered little sign that price pressures are abating. And that’s before the effects of recent flooding and currency weakness... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation eased a touch from 3.1% y/y in September to 3.0% y/y in October (Consensus: 3.0% y/y; CE: 2.8% y/y) and we think the headline rate will continue to slow heading into 2023. 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) Another bigger-than-expected increase in core inflation, to 7.9% in October, will keep the Riksbank focused on slowing demand when policymakers meet next week. We expect a further 75bp rate hike, to 2... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
