India Data Response Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The substantial falls in both headline consumer and wholesale price inflation in October reinforce our view that the Reserve Bank will slow the pace of monetary tightening in its next scheduled policy... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s bad loans, inflation outlook brightening Brazil’s president-elect Lula sent local financial markets into a tailspin late this week after he stressed the need for higher spending, reinforcing our concerns that the country’s public debt... 11th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Upside surprises to Q3 GDP not a sign of things to come Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather... 11th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Construction cooling, fiscal rules and pivots We think euro-zone financial markets are getting ahead of themselves if they are sensing an imminent “pivot” by the ECB following the lower-than-expected US CPI number released yesterday. Indeed, we... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Midterms a mixed bag; disinflation begins in earnest While the outcome of the midterms remains unclear, far more important for the economy was October’s softer-than-expected core CPI data, which support our view that the Fed won’t need to raise interest... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Housing risks rising; strong activity in Sweden Policymakers at the Riksbank and Norges Bank face a tricky balancing act. The latest housing indicators from Sweden and Norway have been very weak, implying that prices will fall. But October’s... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (October) The rise in core inflation in Germany in October confirms that underlying price pressure in the country are still building. We expect the core rate to remain well above 2% throughout next year. 11th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Thinner savings rate buffer for spending in Q4 Private consumption remained resilient in the face of the record COVID wave in Q3, suggesting that households have finally learned to live with the virus. We’ve revised up our Q3 spending forecast... 11th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the dual rally in Treasuries and equities will last US Treasuries and equities rallied sharply after US CPI came in softer than expected, but we doubt this dual rally will persist. While we think Treasury yields will fall back further as the Fed... 10th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Fiscal policy tightening just as the recession begins While the risk premium that pushed gilt yields up and the pound down after the mini-budget has mostly been reversed under the stewardship of Sunak and Hunt, the fear that the markets will baulk at any... 10th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy heading from bad to worse Nigeria’s demonetisation efforts are likely to add to already-high economic costs of the country’s unorthodox policies. The resulting currency falls will fuel inflation further and disruptions to... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The better than expected 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in October won’t on its own persuade the Fed to drop its hawkish stance. But we expect this to mark the start of a much longer... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The fourth consecutive decline in Brazil’s inflation rate, to 6.5% y/y in October, will be welcomed by policymakers at the central bank. That said, inflation is still well above target and will stay... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch The signs of shifting cycles In recent weeks, attention has shifted from the likely size of rates hikes towards the timing of peaks and the prospect of ultimate cuts. History can tell us little about the likely profile since no... 10th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The acceleration in Egypt’s CPI inflation rate from 15.0% y/y in September to a four-year high of 16.2% y/y in October (consensus 15.6% y/y, CE 15.8% y/y) lends support to our view that policymakers... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
