Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President... 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Well placed to navigate choppy waters As highly-open economies, Switzerland and the Nordics are far from immune to the issues of slowing global growth and supply-chain shortages that are currently vexing investors. Sweden is perhaps most... 20th October 2021 · 13 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar falls back as Treasury yields edge down The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most currencies, as “risky” assets have rallied and US Treasury yields have edged down a bit. This fall back in the dollar and US yields is... 15th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Few signs of inflation in Scandinavia While global financial markets are obsessing over the possible rebirth of inflation, there are precious few signs that it is about to take off in Scandinavia. The increases in headline inflation for... 15th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Monetary policy divergences The Norges Bank’s tightening cycle began at the end of last month and we suspect that investors are underestimating the pace of rate hikes to come. By contrast, the Riskbank looks set to leave... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We don’t expect tapering to be a key driver of the US dollar We doubt that the direct effects of the tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases will have much of an impact on the US dollar, and think that other factors will be more important in pushing the greenback... 15th October 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the rally in commodity currencies to be short-lived Although we wouldn’t be surprised if energy prices remained elevated for a while, we still think they will fall back over the next year, weighing on the currencies of net energy exporters. 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack Dollar reaches a crossroad The US dollar has rallied to its strongest level since November 2020, and we think it will remain strong on the back of the Fed’s hawkish shift and ongoing uncertainty around the global recovery. 11th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily “High-beta” G10 currencies unlikely to benefit from rising yields We expect the US dollar to continue to grind higher against most other G10 currencies, and doubt that “high-beta” ones will fare much better than “low-growth” ones, such as the euro. 11th October 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally loses steam following weak payrolls data Despite the rise in US Treasury yields this week, the US dollar reversed some of its recent gains after today’s labour market data were somewhat weaker than expected. But given strong wage growth, we... 8th October 2021 · 10 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Assessing the outlook for US equity valuations We forecast that the valuation of the US stock market will deflate a bit further over the next couple of years, though we are not expecting a sharp decline. 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update We think the Norwegian krone’s rally is nearing its end Although the krone has rallied this year on the back of high energy prices and the expectation of tighter monetary policy, we do not expect this to continue. We think slowing global growth and... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar continues to march higher ahead of October payrolls In another volatile week, the US dollar continued to appreciate against most other currencies, reaching its strongest level, in aggregate, since last November. In part, the greenback’s rally may have... 1st October 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Three market trends from Q3 that we expect to continue We think that three recent market trends – underwhelming stock market performance, rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar – are likely to continue. 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
