DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past... 21st December 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Four key questions for currency markets in 2022 Four central themes in currency markets this year have been the US dollar’s steady grind higher since June, the underperformance of other safe-haven currencies, the remarkable stability of the USD/CNY... 20th December 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Game of two halves ends with a whimper, not a bang This week’s much-anticipated round of central bank policy announcements made only limited impact on currency markets, which for the most part are broadly unchanged on the week. Indeed, despite the... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the rally in the dollar to continue in 2022 While the dollar has not made much further headway this month, despite the Fed’s hawkish message at its latest policy meeting, we think the key underlying drivers of the greenback’s rally – the... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rapid manufacturing rebound, boosters, yen forecast The rapid recovery in car exports in November probably has further to run and continued strength into next year poses upside risks to our forecast for a cumulative 3.3% rise in Japanese exports across... 17th December 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Dollar strength hasn’t pushed its valuation to extremes The recent rally in the US dollar has been driven by strong economic fundamentals in the US relative to other major economies and a favourable shift in yield differentials, leaving the greenback only... 17th December 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Investors spooked by Omicron risks The discovery of the Omicron COVID-19 variant in late November rattled UK markets. Equities tumbled, sterling weakened and corporate credit spreads jumped. And, while the initial reaction was not... 15th December 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Diverging monetary policies may extend the USD rally Today’s US CPI data produced a relatively limited reaction in the US dollar, which is set to end the week a bit weaker against most major currencies. Attention now turns to the 17(!) central bank... 10th December 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update Untangling the effect of Omicron, the Fed, and China easing Three recent developments – the emergence of the Omicron variant, the Fed’s signal that it may further accelerate the pace of policy normalisation, and China’s move towards policy easing – have... 9th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the rebound in the Brazilian real to be short-lived While the real has strengthened against the US dollar following a further 150bp hike from Brazil’s central bank yesterday, we doubt that there will be a sustained rebound. 9th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: five key questions (and answers) This Update answers some of the most common questions that we have received from clients during Turkey’s recent turmoil. In short, the economic fallout doesn’t look like it will be as bad as it was... 7th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX markets likely to remain volatile into year-end After rallying to its highest level of the year last week, the US dollar seems set to end this week broadly unchanged. In our view, this reflects the offsetting effects of rising short-term yields in... 3rd December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey & the macro fallout from past “sudden stops” The history books show that currency crises in other parts of the emerging world in recent decades have resulted in peak-to-trough falls in GDP of around 8% on average and pushed headline inflation up... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB’s patience appears to be wearing thin We argued this week that the upside for the Swiss franc was limited and its inability to push past the CHF 1.04 per euro mark suggests that policymakers’ patience may already have been exhausted. We... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update We anticipate that the rand will remain weak The South African rand has rallied over the past few days after reaching its lowest level against the US dollar in more than a year following last week’s news about the Omicron variant. Even if the... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
