Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar continues to edge higher despite stalling US yields While the US dollar rose sharply after Tuesday’s exceptionally strong inflation print, that was partly offset by Fed Chair Powell’s relatively dovish comments in his testimony to Congress. But overall... 16th July 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the dollar rally & why we think it will continue The US dollar has risen significantly since the June FOMC meeting, with another surge after today’s strong inflation data, and we think the greenback will make further headway in the second half of... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Growth concerns buoy the dollar despite falling US yields Although it has fallen back a bit today after China delivered a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirements, the US dollar has otherwise continued to appreciate against most currencies. The dollar’s... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the carry trade after the FOMC’s surprise While the shift towards rate hikes in several key emerging markets has provided a boost to their currencies, we doubt that the carry trade will fare as well in the second half of the year. 6th July 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The US dollar rally may have further to run The US dollar is ending the week stronger against most currencies, although it has fallen back a little this afternoon despite the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report. While that reaction... 2nd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble may hold onto some of this year’s gains The Russian ruble appreciated to a one-year high against the dollar recently but we think the rally will fade as oil prices fall back and US Treasury yields rise further. That said, the central bank’s... 2nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weighing up the prospects for the NOK We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative... 1st July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US ISM and payrolls could add fuel to the dollar rally The US dollar seems set to end the week slightly weaker, but has held much of its gains following last Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. With increasing focus on the prospects for monetary tightening... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We think the rally in the US dollar has further to run The sharp rise in the US dollar following last week’s FOMC meeting reinforces our view that the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies this year. 24th June 2021 · 10 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Jun. 2021) Given that the moves in most financial markets since the previous editionof our Long Run Returns Monitor have been fairly small–at least for the period as a whole –the returns that we are projecting... 24th June 2021 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Fractious politics don’t change Swedish macro picture The passing of this morning’s “no confidence” vote in Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has plunged Sweden back into a period of political purgatory. While the political outlook is unclear, the... 21st June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed surprise points to further dollar strength The FOMC’s optimistic assessment of the outlook and the significant shift up in its “dot plot” projections has sent the US dollar soaring over the past couple of days. We have brought forward our own... 18th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We expect further US dollar appreciation We think that the surge in the US dollar which has followed Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is a sign of things to come. 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
