Capital Daily We think the Turkish lira’s stability will prove short-lived For the first time in several months, the lira remained subdued following an interest rate announcement from Turkey’s central bank, perhaps as the decision to keep rates on hold was widely anticipated... 20th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s property sector, monetary policy, and exchange rate With China’s property sector – and economy more broadly – struggling, we think more PBOC rate cuts are on the way this year, which we expect to result in further falls in the country’s government bond... 18th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Our outlook for fx-hedged returns in 2022 When it comes to developed markets (DMs), we suspect that fx-hedged returns will be significantly better than unhedged returns for US dollar-based investors in foreign-currency-denominated assets. 17th January 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We do not expect the recent dollar weakness to last Despite several events in the US this week which would usually point to a stronger dollar – the highest US inflation print since the early 1980s, hawkish comments from both Chair Powell and Vice Chair... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Why we still think the renminbi will weaken China’s currency was remarkably stable against the US dollar in 2021 and appreciated against other major currencies. But we doubt that trend will continue this year: a slowing economy, monetary policy... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar drop is at odds with increasingly hawkish Fed The US dollar has started the year on the backfoot and there are several factors that may weigh on it further in the near term. But we think that the Fed’s increasingly rapid shift towards a tighter... 13th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Key financial market calls for 2022 We do not think the returns from many financial assets will be as good in 2022 as they were in 2021. For a start, we envisage a sell-off in government bonds in most places, reflecting the outlook for... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2022 We think that GDP growth in Australia will surprise to the upside. But with wage growth only approaching the 3% watermark the RBA would like to see by year-end, we expect the Bank to keep rates on... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect yields to support further USD strength before long Although the recent surge in US government bond yields has made little impact on the US dollar, which has been broadly flat over the past month or so, we still think that widening yield differentials... 10th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key calls for Emerging Europe in 2022 We think GDP growth will come in below expectations this year. Even so, inflation will ultimately settle at a higher level than is currently appreciated and this feeds into our hawkish interest rate... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Slow start to 2022 for FX markets ahead of US inflation Today’s US non-farm payrolls report had little impact on currency markets, with the dollar set to end the week broadly unchanged against most other currencies. This extends a pattern of low volatility... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Five key calls and five unknowns for Canada in 2022 We expect GDP to grow strongly once the current restrictions are eased, but we are sceptical that either GDP growth or inflation will be as high this year as widely anticipated. This leads us to think... 6th January 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the US dollar’s prospects in 2022 Although we wouldn’t be surprised if the rally in the US dollar paused in the short term, we still expect the relative strength of the economic recovery in the US and monetary tightening there to push... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s FX-indexed deposit scheme A new scheme announced by Turkey’s President Erdogan last night, which compensates holders of lira deposits for exchange rates losses, has triggered a sharp rally in the lira and will help to mitigate... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
