Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Relative equity performance and the US dollar Although a major drop in US equities poses a key downside risk to our view that the US dollar will rise, we doubt the slight underperformance of US equities relative to global equities that we... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The ECB strikes back & US payrolls surprise A week after the FOMC’s hawkish message sent the US dollar soaring, the ECB delivered an even bigger surprise at yesterday’s policy meeting by opening the door to policy rate hikes later this year... 4th February 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the prospects for EM currencies We expect most emerging market (EM) currencies to struggle, despite their strong start to 2022, as commodity prices fall and the Fed seeks to tighten financial conditions. That said, we think that... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Assessing the relative valuations of EM equities Emerging market equities’ relatively low valuations may continue to hold them in better stead than equities in the US, but we think they will do less well compared to other developed market equities. 1st February 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Currency market calm & dollar stability may not last Amid a turbulent start to the year in bond and equity markets, currency markets have remained relatively calm, and the US dollar has not gained much despite the FOMC’s increasingly hawkish stance. We... 1st February 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Higher bond yields more headwind than hurricane Although we expect a further rise in government bond yields to undermine the returns from most “safe” assets, we don’t expect it to be big enough to bring the prices of most “risky” financial assets... 31st January 2022 · 25 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equities adjusting to the end of ultra-low real yields It is possible that equity prices will continue to struggle in the near term if central banks send more signals that they are willing to raise interest rates further in order to control inflation. But... 31st January 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish FOMC meeting provides a boost to the dollar The trade-weighted US dollar reached its highest level since July 2020 this week after short-term rate differentials moved strongly in its favour following Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC meeting. 28th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A slower recovery in 2022 Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening... 28th January 2022 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Fed tightening to push US yields and the USD higher The FOMC’s latest policy announcement reinforces our view that strong underlying inflationary pressures in the US will prompt a sustained tightening cycle, which we think will drive US Treasury yields... 27th January 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think CEE currencies will weaken despite rate hikes We expect the major central and eastern European (CEE) currencies to depreciate against the euro this year. We think that the Czech koruna will continue to fare better than the other CEE currencies... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think emerging market currencies will generally fall from here Although emerging market currencies have held up surprisingly well so far this year amid the volatility in global equity markets, we think they will weaken in general against the US dollar before too... 26th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes showing on all policy radars The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless... 26th January 2022 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed guidance could revive the rally in the US dollar The trade-weighted US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher, reversing some of its recent decline. But the dollar strength has mostly been against G10 currencies; despite the fall in US... 21st January 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We expect the dollar bull market to continue Although the dollar’s rally has stalled over the past six weeks or so, and may tread water for a while longer, we think that it will ultimately appreciate a bit further this year and next. The key... 20th January 2022 · 21 mins read
