Capital Daily The German election & the outlook for E-Z bonds & the euro We think that regardless of which coalition ends up governing Germany in the aftermath of the general election, there won’t be a big shift in fiscal policy or Germany’s attitude towards European... 27th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Labour shortages getting worse Labour shortages have intensified in recent months, which could both act as a brake on the recovery and lead to a stronger acceleration in wage growth. According to the CFIB Business Barometer, the... 27th September 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Fed & China risks point to a stronger dollar In a choppy week dominated by some surprising central bank announcements and the ongoing uncertainty around China’s property sector, the US dollar continued to make some headway, especially against... 24th September 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update The curious case of the super-stable renminbi We think that the renminbi’s period of remarkable calm will end before long, and that it will depreciate against the US dollar over the next few months. In view of the wider interest, we are also... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think China’s equities will continue to struggle Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Drop-In: Evergrande – What are... 22nd September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the Aussie dollar to remain under pressure Growing evidence of an economic slowdown in China reinforces our view that the Australian dollar will fall further against the US dollar through the end of this year. 21st September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Worrying more about higher inflation The recent rises in 2-year and 10-year gilt yields to their highest levels since the “dash for cash” at the start of the pandemic have entirely been driven by the investors revising up their... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar edges higher ahead of the September FOMC meeting The dollar has risen against most currencies as markets have remained quiet ahead of next week’s monetary policy announcements. In addition to the FOMC, more than a dozen central banks in developed... 17th September 2021 · 11 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years. 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada’s election unlikely to be a key driver of the loonie We doubt that the outcome of next week’s federal election in Canada will have much bearing on the economy and the loonie. Instead, we still think that bond yield differentials and oil prices will be... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What China’s economic slowdown may mean for FX markets The growing risks associated with the property sector in China underscore our view that the renminbi will weaken against the US dollar before long, even if financial stability risks do not escalate... 16th September 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound looks unconvincing After weakening over the preceding two weeks, the US dollar has rebounded against most other currencies this week. Nonetheless, last week’s disappointing payrolls report and the slightly less upbeat... 10th September 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We think the dollar’s summer rally may resume Although it has fallen back a bit over the past three weeks, the dollar has been on the front foot for much of the summer and we think it will make some further headway over the next few months. In... 10th September 2021 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over Although the US dollar, in aggregate, has fallen back sharply from its high of the year over recent weeks, we expect it will soon reverse course and strengthen against most currencies. CE Spotlight... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
