Latin America Economics Update Chile: more interest rate cuts to come Policymakers in Chile cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.50% last night and gave a clear indication that there is more monetary easing to come. If economic growth does not pick up as we expect ,the risks... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling really overvalued? When comparing sterling’s real effective exchange rate to its ten-year average,the currency appears to be around 12% overvalued – which is the largest degreeof misalignment among the developed market... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Stimulus may backfire as bank deal falls through Negative comments from holdout creditors suggest that a solution to the Argentine debt dispute involving private banks has fallen through. That, along with interest rate cuts and monetisation of the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What will Fed rate hikes mean for Asia? EM assets sold off sharply last year after the US Fed hinted that QE was on borrowed time, with some of Asia's major economies getting caught up in the turmoil. Markets have become jittery again in... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update After Zambia and Ghana, will others turn to the IMF? Recent moves by both Zambia and Ghana to request IMF help have focused attention on vulnerabilities in other economies in the region that run large current account deficits. But strong inflows of... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three scenarios for Russia’s economy The deepening political crisis between Russia and the US/Europe means that the uncertainties attached to economic forecasts are even greater than usual. In these circumstances it makes more sense to... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rates do not have much further to rise Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4.25% last night but we do not think that the current tightening cycle has much further to run. Inflation is unlikely to pose a problem... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Major shockwaves from Argentine default unlikely We do not expect Argentina’s default to trigger a prolonged ripple of contagion in the rest of Latin America. There may be some turbulence in the region’s financial markets, but we suspect that the... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shanghai equities on a tear Equities in China have soared in recent days as sentiment about the economy’s prospects has warmed. But we don’t expect the rally to be sustained. 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have further to run The tightening cycles that began in Ghana and South Africa earlier this year continued in July and, in both cases, we think that further interest rate hikes are likely before the end of 2014. Ghana’s... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia's financial markets recover on the back of election results Most of the region's currencies and equity markets fared well over the past month. In particular, Joko Widodo's presidential election victory in July helped Indonesia's financial markets stage a... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Property price worries prompt rate hikes The central banks of New Zealand, the Philippines and Malaysia all tightened monetary policy last month amid signs that policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned that loose monetary policy is... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Balance of Payments (Q2) China’s balance of payments data for Q2 show substantial outflows on the financial account. But this does not mean that capital has been fleeing the country. Instead it is a reflection of the fact... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Interest rates heading in opposite directions The Russian central bank caused a surprise earlier this month by hiking its one-week repo rate in a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows ahead of a fresh sanctions imposed by the US and EU. This... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro’s fall provides glimmer of hope, but more needed The euro finally appears to be succumbing to the downward pressure implied by the divergentprospects for monetary policy in the US and euro-zone. But bigger declines are likely to be needed tokick... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets take Argentina’s debt dispute in their stride The Argentine government seems increasingly likely to default on sovereign debt repayments due at the end of this month but the reaction in both local markets and markets in the region more generally... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
