Global Markets Focus How will the outlook for monetary policy affect the markets? A tighter monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will potentially be the most important factor affecting the global financial markets next year. In this Focus, we consider the reactions we can expect... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect in Asia in 2015 In this Weekly we outline our key calls for the region in 2015. We expect Emerging Asia to be a bright spot in the global economy, with growth set to accelerate in most economies. Falling commodity... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russia crisis: one chart to watch The Russian ruble has rallied over the past 24 hours, but there are growing signs that the crisis is spreading to the banking sector. In particular, interbank interest rates have jumped to over 27%... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What should we expect in 2015? Wage growth is set to remain sluggish next year and, with households also likely to be trying to rebuild their savings, we expect consumer spending to be subdued. In turn, this suggests that GDP... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will sustained low oil prices affect EM currencies? The currencies of many emerging economies have sold off recently, due to general US dollar strength and, in some cases, declining oil prices. While our forecast that oil prices will remain low... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the Norwegian krone now undervalued? Although the Norwegian krone is on course to be the worst performing G-10 currency this year, having depreciated by almost 20% against the US dollar since January, we doubt that it is now... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Instant reaction to Putin’s press conference The mounting economic crisis in Russia meant that there has been greater-than-usual focus on President Putin’s annual press conference, which is taking place this morning. In this Update we provide... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rough end to the year for Asian markets Emerging Asia’s financial markets have not escaped the latest turmoil unscathed, but they have fared better than other EM regions. 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lessons from 1998 There are more differences than similarities between the current crisis in Russia and the crisis in 1998, but one point in common is that both have their roots in severe strains in the country’s... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Russian ruble “extremely undervalued”? We are not convinced by the Russian finance ministry’s claim on Wednesday morning that the ruble is “extremely undervalued”. After all, Russia has undergone an enormous deterioration in its terms of... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia takes steps to limit fallout from ruble crisis The Central Bank of Russia has this afternoon announced a raft of measures that, while on their own aresmall, collectively suggest that the authorities have at last started to develop a strategy for... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to watch for signs of stress in Russia’s banks The ruble crisis has sparked fears of contagion to Russia’s financial sector and a meltdown in the economy. A rise in interbank interest rates tends to be best indicator of stress in the banking... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI unlikely to panic over rupee sell-off India has not been immune to the turbulence that has hit EM markets over the past few days in the wake of the unfolding crisis in Russia. This has led to suggestions that the RBI is now likely to... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Naira and rand in the firing line Currencies in sub-Saharan Africa have continued to come under pressure this month, with both the South African rand and Nigerian naira falling to record lows. The naira has suffered from the further... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
