UK Markets Outlook Will the MPC continue to anchor markets? Although the UK’s economic recovery has gone from strength to strength, markets have remained optimistic that monetary policy will remain highly accommodative for a while longer yet. Indeed, on the... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Contagion from Argentine debt dispute limited So far at least, financial markets in Argentina have largely shrugged off the fact that, barring a last minute deal with holdout creditors, the government now seems destined to enter a technical... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s financial markets recover, while Indonesia’s falter Reduced political tensions in Thailand have boosted its stock market and the baht. But in Indonesia, growing uncertainty over the result of July’s presidential election has weighed on financial... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Upward pressure on renminbi is building The renminbi has been allowed to strengthen by 0.5% against the dollar so far this month. A rebounding trade surplus will, in our view, force the People’s Bank to tolerate further gains in the months... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update FX reserves are no magic bullet in a debt crisis The foreign exchange reserves of the People’s Bank would be of little use in the event of a debt or banking crisis in China. The bulk of the costs of any clean-up would ultimately still be paid by the... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM assets shrug off tighter Fed policy? We are sceptical that tighter US monetary policy will spell disaster for emerging market (EM) assets. Granted, their prices fell sharply after Ben Bernanke first hinted that the Fed was thinking about... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai equities on the slide The Dubai equity market has fallen sharply over the past month amid concerns that the Emirate’s real estate sector is becoming another bubble. Elsewhere, spreads on Egypt’s dollar-denominated bonds... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Another selection of our non-consensus calls This Update provides some examples of where our views on the economic and market outlook differ significantly from the consensus. It draws on the range of country and regional services produced by our... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya joins the eurobond rush Sub-Saharan Africa’s eurobond markets hit the headlines again in June when Kenya became the latest country to issue dollar-denominated debt. With much of the region continuing to enjoy low yields by... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets jolted by MPC’s new tone The MPC’s recent hawkish comments have helped to push near-term interest rate expectations higher and have fuelled a further rally in sterling to its strongest trade-weighted level since October 2008... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of our revised UK Bank Rate forecast The strength of the UK’s economic recovery and more hawkish signals coming from members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have prompted us to revise our projection for the path... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold for now, but further action will be needed The Swiss National Bank (SNB) today maintained its strongly supportive policy stance, pledging to enforce the ceiling on the Swiss franc with “the utmost determination”. We think that the SNB will... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor How overvalued is the US stock market? At almost 26, the level of Shiller’s 10-year cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) is currently more than 65% above its average since 1881. But the CAPE is inflated because reported earnings... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Russian markets continues Emerging European equities have rebounded over the past month, driven by Russian stocks. However, this has merely recouped losses seen earlier in the year. Looking ahead, we’re relatively downbeat on... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Iraq crisis tops a long list of geopolitical risks There are good reasons to be relaxed about the global economic fall-out from the latest crisis in Iraq, including the possibility that it might actually lead to an improvement in relations between the... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for Russia's financial markets? We do not think the recent outperformance of Russia’s financial markets and currency will last. Indeed, the ruble has already dropped back slightly over the past week or so. There are three key... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
