Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound may fall further as CBE reduces support The fall in the Egyptian pound in recent weeks is significant given that the central bank had maintained a tight grip on the currency over the past year. No official explanation has been provided for... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor How strong is the euro? The euro does not appear to be significantly overvalued despite the ECB’s concerns about its strength. The real effective exchange rate (REER) is equal to its ten-year average and only slightly above... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rise in the Turkish lira belies external vulnerabilities The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has taken many analysts – ourselves included – by surprise, not least because the economy still has large external vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is the Korean won overvalued? Fears that a strong won will undermine Korea’s export competitiveness look overdone. If anything, the won looks slightly undervalued, while prospects for the country’s exporters are better than they... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations should support EM equities One reason to be relatively optimistic about emerging market equities is their low valuation relative to their developed market counterparts. For example, price/12m forward earnings ratios are around... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Underperformance of Japan's stock market may end soon In April, major stock indices edged higher in the US and Europe but fell further in Japan. We think equities in the US are likely to struggle as the Fed becomes less accommodative, and our end-2015... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Steady as she goes We forecast a fairly small rise in the 10-year US government bond yield by end-2015 despite a shift in Fed policy. We also think the BoE will raise rates later and more slowly than the US central bank... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further RMB weakening tests the PBOC’s nerves After large-scale intervention succeeded in weakening the renminbi and rattling many investors, there are tentative signs that the People’s Bank is now trying to introduce some stability. 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities record a solid month Most of Asia’s stock markets recorded gains in April, buoyed by capital inflows. The positive sentiment toward Asian equities appears to reflect an easing of fears over a hard landing in China, as... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Big fall in Brazilian real is behind us but sustained rally unlikely Having been one of worst performing EM currencies in 2013, the Brazilian real has been one of the best performers so far in 2014, prompting speculation that it will strengthen further from here. We’re... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE and Qatar equities rally ahead of MSCI upgrade Equity markets in the UAE and Qatar have rallied in the past month ahead of their upgrade to emerging market status by MSCI. By contrast, the Egyptian stock market has had a relatively disappointing... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors flee China’s equity market Net selling by global ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to investing in equities in China was larger in March than in any other month on record according to EPFR Global. This presumably reflected... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Unrest in east Ukraine has limited effect on markets Financial markets across Emerging Europe have proved relatively resilient to the recent escalation in political unrest in eastern Ukraine. But at the same time, the recovery from the losses earlier in... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB’s QE unlikely to be the panacea that markets hope The ECB looks increasingly willing to implement some form of explicit quantitative easing (QE) soon. However, the market impacts may be smaller and more varied than widely hoped. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
