UK Commercial Property Update

RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 2023)

Having deteriorated for the best part of 2023, sentiment over all-property occupier demand and rents improved in Q4. However, the balances remain negative, pointing to subdued demand and rental growth...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Questions from our latest US housing drop-in

We held a 20-minute online briefing this week to discuss our new forecast for the US housing market in 2024. You can watch the recording of the “drop-in” here. This Update recaps our answers to the...

25th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Residential yields have further to rise

The long boom in residential investment has been severely dented by soaring interest rates. Solid fundamentals mean investor interest will remain strong, but it is unlikely residential yields have...

24th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jan. 24)

Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will stabilise in the first quarter of 2024. But given historically narrow yield spreads, we doubt we will...

24th January 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Why we see more distress coming in 2024

We expect evidence of distress to ramp up this year as loan extensions end. Many borrowers will be forced to either inject new capital, return assets to lenders or sell into a soft market. Those...

22nd January 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jan 2024)

If we are right to think that the Bank of England will begin lowering interest rates in June, the recent fall in mortgage rates should be sustained. The resulting drop in the cost of borrowing will...

22nd January 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Dec. 2023)

A drop in existing home sales in December confirmed that they fell by 20% y/y in 2023 as a whole to their lowest level since 1995. (See Chart 1.) Lack of supply was the main reason existing home sales...

19th January 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Are capital values close to bottoming out?

Prices of commercial real estate equities suggest capital values will see a strong recovery in the first few months of 2024. But with no prospect of yield compression and rental growth set to slow, we...

19th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Dec. 2023)

Housing starts fell last month reversing almost half of November’s huge weather-driven 11% m/m increase, but remained stronger than they were in the summer. The fall on the month was something of a...

18th January 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023)

The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to...

18th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec. 23)

Market was picking up even before latest slide in mortgage rates The December RICS Housing Market survey showed sales volumes rising and buyer demand recovering even before the further sizeable drop...

18th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack

We anticipate that mortgage rates will continue to fall in 2024, but more gradually than they have recently from 6.8% now to 6.25% by the end of the year. That won’t be enough to bring a great deal of...

17th January 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Early Q4 data show adjustment to higher rates goes on

Early prime office yield data for Q4 suggest that the property correction deepened at the end of 2023. The sharp rises in yields occurred despite a more favourable market interest rate environment...

17th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial to join offices as worst-performing sector

We are downbeat on industrial total returns over the next two years compared to the consensus because of our relatively pessimistic views on both rents and cap rates. And we think the risks to long...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Revisiting Dubai’s GRE debts

We have long highlighted the risk in Dubai’s corporate sector and the large debts that government-related entities (GREs) have accrued. This Update provides our latest estimates of these debts. The...

16th January 2024 · 6 mins read