UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Aug. 23) 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Spike in housing starts belies weak construction outlook As we anticipated, housing starts in England spiked to their highest level on record in Q2 as builders began work early to avoid having to conform with the Future Homes Standard. More timely monthly... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus to deliver partial recovery China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains... 27th September 2023 · 17 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul.) The sixth consecutive rise in house prices in July showed that very tight supply is causing home prices to continue to rise despite sales volumes remaining weak, and suggests a second dip in house... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail sector defies cost-of-living crisis The leisure sector is now feeling the impact of the cost-of-living crisis, with rising vacancy and declining rents. But we don’t think the retail sector will follow in its footsteps. Households are... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Softer German office supply won’t stop vacancy rising The weakness in German construction activity has raised questions about whether a slowdown in new office supply could offset the weakness in demand and prevent a rise in vacancy. But we think that on... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall through 2024 - retail to outperform With the economy showing signs of slowing and transaction volumes likely to stay low in H2 2023, a tough 6-12 months lies in store for commercial real estate. We still expect cap rates to rise on the... 25th September 2023 · 22 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for euro-zone yields? The following is a presentation that our Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell gave to the District Conference in Barcelona on 21st September, 2023. 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Interest rate hold won’t provide immediate relief Despite ending the interest rate hiking cycle today, the Monetary Policy Committee succeeded in convincing financial markets that interest rates will remain high for some time. As market interest rate... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) The 0.7% m/m fall back in existing home sales in August reflects falling mortgage borrowing and took sales back close to the low levels recorded in January. Our view that mortgage rates will remain... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: US CRE – Updated forecasts and more downside risks 1695915000 The bad news around US commercial real estate continues to roll in, but appraisal-based indices have so far only fallen by 10%.
UK Commercial Property Update Financial conditions still point to weaker construction Commercial construction surveys have shown improving activity in recent months, despite high interest rates and a slowing economy. Our Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) suggest that might be because... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% until mid-2024. While transactions... 19th September 2023 · 1 min read
