US Housing Market Update

Southern house price outperformance to last

The national average house price has risen by nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic, but that masks a lot of regional variation. The rise in house prices in southern metros has been even larger...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rents rising but a retail renaissance in 2024 is unlikely

The revival of prime retail rental growth in 2023 ended a three-year rental decline for the sector. This likely marks the end of retail’s rental woes and we have nudged up our prime rent forecast for...

14th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 24)

The February RICS Residential Market Survey revealed a jump in the supply of homes for sale which, paired with a slight rise in mortgage rates, means that house price gains are likely to stall in the...

14th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Nashville, Jacksonville and Austin top for remote workers

Our updated remote worker preference scores again highlight Nashville as the most attractive metro for remote workers, while San Jose is the least attractive. The winners continue to be predominantly...

13th March 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Online share developments not all bad news

The online share of retail sales is still above its pre-pandemic trend, but a closer look suggests that is perhaps not as bad for the retail sector as it looks. For example, the share of online...

13th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Peak in yields is near, but little scope for compression

Improved valuations suggest that the price correction in prime property is almost done. However, with little scope for bond yields in continental Europe to fall from here and property-to-bond yield...

13th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Rental market continues to contract

The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but...

12th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Mar. 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have upwardly revised their 2024 expectations, which are now more in line with our view. Stronger rental growth help drive that improvement and...

8th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

Property Drop-In: US CRE Outlook – When’s the recovery?

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US commercial real estate prices may have fallen 15% from their peaks – led by a 30% plunge in office values – but this isn’t over.

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Feb. 24)

The smallest month-on-month increase in house prices since September suggested that the boost to house prices from the decline in mortgage rates since last summer is over. With mortgage rates now...

7th March 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (Feb. 2024)

February’s mortgage applications data show rising mortgage rates put an end to what had been the start of a fairly promising recovery, following the low for applications in October 2023. We think this...

6th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Feb. 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to 49.7 in February, just under the no change level. The rise was driven by the housing component, with commercial activity edging back a touch. As interest...

6th March 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Focus

Property construction correction has barely begun

The drag from the unavoidable structural decline in China’s property sector has only just begun. Property sales and project starts have collapsed. But property construction activity has retreated only...

6th March 2024 · 14 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Investment activity unlikely to improve in 2024

Commercial real estate investment saw its worst year in over a decade last year. Most brokers seem to expect a recovery in investment activity this year as the Fed cuts interest rates and distressed...

5th March 2024 · 3 mins read