Europe Commercial Property Update Investment drop-in: Answers to client questions This week we held a drop-in on the prospects for commercial property investment in the UK and Europe. This Update provides answers to the most interesting questions that emerged from the discussion. 3rd November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update More pain to come for first-time buyers The rise in the US homeownership rate has stalled, driven by a drop in the proportion of under-35s that own their home. That’s down to higher mortgage rates reducing the number of first-time buyers... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Belgian industrial rents to lead the euro-zone We expect industrial rents in Belgium to outperform the rest of the euro-zone on the back of a brighter economic outlook, very tight supply and a larger rise in e-commerce. We forecast annual average... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2023) Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Higher for longer to push all-property cap rates above 5% On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q4 2023) London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment collapse on course to match GFC decline European investment fell sharply again in Q3 but with interest rates at their peak we think the downturn will soon bottom out. However, our upgraded bond yield forecasts indicate only a limited easing... 30th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Sep. 23) Net lending to property totaled £132mn in September, the lowest amount since February. But looking through the monthly volatility, on a 3-month basis lending has totaled more than £1.5bn in every... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response BoE Mortgage Lending (Sep.23) The drop in mortgage approvals in September left them a third below their usual level in the years leading up to the pandemic as high mortgage rates put homeowners off moving and priced many first... 30th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Early Q3 data confirm EZ crash as worst on record The preliminary data for Q3 were sobering, with euro-zone prime yields moving up significantly more than expected. This confirms the 2022-23 real estate contraction as the worst on record and, with... 27th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) The Q3 RICS survey indicated occupier and investment sentiment fell further in Q3, with the latter reflected in weak investment volumes throughout the summer months. But tight credit conditions and a... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3 2023) Having started the year on a somewhat promising footing, all-property occupier demand has weakened since and fell further in Q3. The demand balances for offices and retail remained significantly... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Raising our mortgage rate forecasts Our new higher forecasts for US Treasury yields mean that mortgage rates won’t fall as quickly as we previously predicted. While we still expect mortgage rates to decline they are unlikely to fall... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi Arabia real estate, Gulf deposits in Egypt Saudi Arabia’s mortgage market continues to struggle and, together with increased residential real estate supply in the Kingdom, is likely to keep property prices subdued for some time. Elsewhere... 26th October 2023 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2023) The -1.4% quarterly return in Q3 meant that there have now been four consecutive negative quarters for all-property total returns. That figure was dragged down by a 5% q/q fall in office values as all... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
