Capital Daily Another mini banking crisis looks unlikely Although last week’s renewed underperformance of US regional banks and equity office REITs sparked fears of another mini banking crisis, a fairly steady decline in the option-adjusted spreads (OAS) of... 6th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will commercial property distress spread to the UK? Distress in the US commercial property market is once again in the news, but the risk of that spreading to the UK is low. The rise in aggregate loan-to-value ratios to date looks manageable and with... 6th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 46.8 in December to 48.8 in January was driven by improvements in both the housing and commercial readings. (See Chart 1.) While we doubt commercial... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Distressing state of affairs for some multifamily investors Recent headlines have drawn attention to the immediate risks facing multifamily investors and lenders. While we think this concern is appropriate, we think the biggest risks face assets financed at... 5th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing Given the rise in rents and the recent decline in mortgage rates, the financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing. This will boost buyer demand and cause tenant demand to soften this year. 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Close to a floor, but investment upturn will be weak Euro-zone investment improved a little in Q4, but that did not prevent it experiencing its worst year in a decade. While we have raised our forecast for through-year growth, we still expect a weak... 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Are rents really falling? We think the recent divergence between the BLS measure of apartment rents and other sources is due to reliability issues with the former, which we expect will be revised higher in future releases... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Direct market values to fall despite signals from REITs Typically, US REIT price indices have been a good indicator of the growth path for capital values in the direct market. That said, even though REIT prices rebounded in Q4 2023, we don’t expect the... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov. 2023) The marked slowdown in house prices in November was the first sign of a response in prices to the spike in mortgage rates a month earlier. 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Dec. 23) Net lending to commercial property increased for the tenth consecutive month in December, but investment sentiment remained downbeat. Looking ahead, we expect investment to slowly recover over H1 2024... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2023) The worsening in total returns to -3.0% q/q in Q4 was consistent with our expectations of bigger-than-average year-end markdowns. But the major takeaway was that the data and NCREIF’s release notes... 29th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) The Q4 RICS survey suggested that occupier and investment sentiment remained pessimistic in Q4. We expect sentiment will be subdued in at least the first half of 2024, with credit conditions staying... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q1 2024) London house prices were more resilient in 2023 than we had expected, falling by 2.4% y/y in Q4 close to the national average of -2.3% y/y. London is more reliant on mortgaged buyers than other... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Dec. 2023) New home sales rebounded in December, reversing nearly all of their decline in the previous month when mortgage borrowing costs were much closer to their 8% peak. 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
