Europe Commercial Property Update

Drop back in office completions to support prime rents

Completions in Europe are set to increase over the next year or so as construction delays unwind, which will contribute to rising vacancy. However, we expect the upward pressure from supply to ease...

5th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Focus

Why this will be the slowest global recovery on record

Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in...

4th March 2024 · 21 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Germany not the only source of debt distress in Europe

Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s...

1st March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have office delinquencies not hit GFC-era highs?

The resilience of the US economy in this cycle means the rise in distressed assets has been much slower than in the GFC-era recession, as relatively few firms have gone bust. But the structural...

29th February 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Jan. 24)

29th February 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

Green premium helps drive refurbishment boom

The latest crane survey reported the highest volume of London office starts on record. In part that reflects a refurbishment boom as developers retrofit their buildings to meet MEES standards and...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse

A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024.

28th February 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec. 2023)

Another small rise in house prices in December suggests the extremely backward-looking data are still capturing a slowdown in price growth following the October peak in mortgage rates. That’s mainly...

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024)

All-property valuations saw the largest quarterly increase in over a decade in Q4, as property yields rose across all sectors and the 10-year Treasury yield saw its sharpest quarterly decline since Q1...

26th February 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (Jan. 2024)

The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year helped new home sales regain some more momentum in January. But so far the rebound has been slightly slower than we were anticipating. Looking...

26th February 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

New developer financing scheme shows promise

The record 25bp cut to the 5Y Loan Prime Rate, the benchmark for price mortgages, captured the headlines this week. But of greater importance to China's property sector is the new "real estate...

23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

A recovery, but not much of one

With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any...

23rd February 2024 · 23 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024)

Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The property correction slowed slightly at the end of last year, but we think the fall in capital...

23rd February 2024 · 0 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Larger mortgages challenge weak house price forecasts

The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Jan. 2024)

The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year was the catalyst for existing home sales rising in January. But borrowing costs have risen again in recent weeks, which in the near term...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read