US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May 2024)

Another moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in May adds to the evidence that sellers are losing their grip on the market due to increasing supply. Do not write our forecast for a 5% gain in house...

30th July 2024 · 1 min read

China Rapid Response

China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 2024)

The readout of the Politburo’s latest triannual meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It was dovish in tone and adds to recent evidence that the leadership believes more...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Q2 data show appraisers still lagging reality

A second consecutive reduction in the size of value falls – just 1.4% q/q – in the Q2 NCREIF NPI appears to point to the price correction being all but over. However, with evidence of distress growing...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Jun. 24)

Net lending to property increased for the third month in a row in June, and the rise of £1.31bn was the largest since the end of 2021. In line with last month the gain was entirely due to a rise in...

29th July 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2024)

June’s money and lending data provided a bit more evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade, which supports our view that the economic recovery may be a bit stronger than most...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial sentiment worsens in Q2 RICS survey

While headline balances saw little movement, digging deeper the Q2 RICS survey shows a reversal of last quarter’s more positive outlook. Indeed, respondents seem more downbeat, with almost half now...

25th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

RICS survey sours on France, turns upbeat on values

The Q2 RICS survey showed that sentiment toward offices is improving – occupier demand balances saw the largest sectoral rise and rent and value growth expectations were raised. With year-ahead...

25th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Commercial property capital values bottom out

The Q2 RICS commercial survey added to the growing body of evidence that capital values at the all-property level have now bottomed out. But, in line with our forecasts, it also implied that the...

25th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Supermarket recovery delayed, but still imminent

Supermarkets struggled in 2023, as falling food sales volumes hit profits and rental growth. But the future looks brighter. As food price inflation has fallen supermarket profits have recovered and...

24th July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Jun. 2024)

New home sales were essentially unchanged in June after their 15% slump the month before, not helped by mortgage rates which remained stubbornly high at around 7%. So far in July, borrowing costs have...

24th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Jun. 2024)

The sharp rise in mortgage rates in April was the catalyst for existing home sales falling to a 13-year low in June. However, borrowing costs have since receded and timelier indicators of activity...

23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Lending surveys point to weak recovery in transactions

Recent surveys of real estate lenders paint a picture of a European lending market that is still seized up, as loan terms tightened and credit demand fell in H1. Lenders are optimistic that demand for...

23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Making sense of Australia’s two-speed housing cycle

Much of the recent resilience in Australia’s house price growth can be attributed to a handful of capital cities where the property markets have gone from strength to strength. We believe that there...

23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Housing market to surpass expectations in 2025

House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered...

22nd July 2024 · 17 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Slump in new homes makes housing target a stretch

Given the UK recently got much closer to the government’s target of building 300,000 homes a year than is acknowledged, you might think that the Planning and Infrastructure Bill announced in the King...

19th July 2024 · 5 mins read