Europe Commercial Property Update

Prime office rent gains to beat consensus expectations

Prime office rents look set to rise by more than we had previously expected over the next few years given still low CBD vacancy, preferences for prime space and cuts to the supply pipeline in 2025-26...

29th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Is the City of London bouncing back?

City offices have underperformed their West End neighbours by a wide margin since 2022. More encouraging recent data have led us to revise up our City rental projections, but we still expect stronger...

28th August 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields

Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast...

27th August 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2024)

The muted 0.2% rise in the national Case-Shiller house price index in June was no shock considering that buyer demand collapsed that month, while supply kept growing. With the spring selling season...

27th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Jul. 2024)

The surge in new home sales in July was driven by pent-up buyers taking advantage of the sharp drop in borrowing costs last month, after having been sidelined earlier this year by high mortgage rates...

23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Officials ease price controls, mull direct homebuying

Allowing local governments to use special bond issuance to directly purchase unsold homes could address the lack of SOE participation in the current property destocking scheme. But this approach would...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2024)

A stabilisation of property yields and solid rent growth mean that euro-zone all-property values increased in Q2 for the first time in two years. However, market sentiment remains very weak and...

23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Taiwan defies dovish shift among Asia’s central banks

The common theme across the three central bank meetings in Asia this week was that inflation concerns are fading, partly due to a rebound in currencies, and policymakers appear a bit more concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2024)

The small rebound in existing home sales in July seems underwhelming after last month’s large drop in mortgage rates, but the data are based on completed transactions and so it will take at least...

22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Look to beds, sheds and retail for best returns

Commercial property yields and capital values have stabilised in recent months, which has encouraged investors to dip their toes back into the sector. But the recovery is set to be a weak one...

22nd August 2024 · 26 mins read

US Commercial Property Focus

Time to go shopping for retail assets

Retail real estate has faced a tough period, buffeted by the rise of e-commerce, extensive oversupply and the impacts of the pandemic on in-store shopping. But we think the sector is well down the...

20th August 2024 · 21 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024)

Commercial property valuations worsened slightly in Q2 across all sectors as bond yields rose while property yields held steady. However, the decline in government bond yields so far in Q3 means...

20th August 2024 · 0 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk

The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate...

20th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Warning signs for business investment

The data this week cast doubt on the Bank of Canada’s view that the worst is already behind us for the economy, with manufacturing sales slumping to a two-and-a-half year low in June and non...

16th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Aug. 2024)

Interest rate cuts have so far failed to stimulate the housing market, although the sharper drop in borrowing costs this month will lend more support. Regional divergences are growing, with Toronto...

16th August 2024 · 4 mins read