US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Aug. 2024)

New home sales dropped back slightly in August, which always seemed likely after the 10% surge in transactions the month before, driven by pent-up buyers responding to lower borrowing costs. Still...

25th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ

A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By...

25th September 2024 · 20 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Sellers lose grip on the market

Increased supply and weak demand are both contributing to the slowdown in house price growth. The recent sharp drop in mortgage rates should cause the market to retighten, but it will take time for...

24th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2024)

Another muted 0.2% rise in house prices in July adds to the sense that the housing market is cooling amid weak buyer demand and growing supply. As price growth continues to moderate quickly with no...

24th September 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

Stimulus package a step in the right direction

In a departure from their previous approach of drip-feeding piecemeal support measures, China’s financial regulators have just announced a coordinated package of stimulus measures. This is a step in...

24th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Industrial to outperform as muted recovery gets underway

After two disappointing years, commercial property values have stabilised. However, the recovery is set to be weak. We think yield falls in the coming years will be small compared to previous...

23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read

US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook

Houston rockets to the top of the office rankings

Offices are still in for a tough few years, with markets like San Francisco, LA and Seattle likely to come out of the downturn with values down 55% or more from their 2019 peaks. However, there are...

20th September 2024 · 7 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2024)

The slump in existing home sales in August shows that the sharp fall in mortgage rates since late-July is yet to stimulate the market, although the signs of life in last week’s purchase mortgage...

19th September 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 24)

Yields have now peaked in most sectors and capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past standards. Thanks to...

19th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Aug. 2024)

The large rise in housing starts in August was due to a rebound in starts in the south, confirming that the July slump was a temporary disruption caused by Hurricane Beryl. The increase in permits...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Will remote work go into reverse?

We doubt the announcement by Amazon that it is requiring office-based workers to return full-time marks the start of a reversal in the remote work share. It is far from clear that requiring five days...

18th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2024)

Increased supply and weaker demand are pushing down rents in several cities. That raises the risk of another leg down for apartment prices, despite the recent drop in mortgage rates.

17th September 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

We doubt the small fall in Nationwide house prices in August was the start of a renewed downturn. Surveys suggest the recent declines in mortgage rates have led to an increase in housing demand, while...

17th September 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Focus

Regional divide in euro-zone office yield outlook

Taking stock of euro-zone office yields after their recent stabilisation reveals a convergence across the region, with spreads between the northern markets and the historically higher-risk southern...

17th September 2024 · 15 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates

The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read