US Commercial Property Update

Immigration will support largest multifamily markets

While the headline-hitting surge in immigration last year was mainly driven by a spike in unauthorized movement, legal immigration has picked up from its pandemic lows, which is good news for many...

3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Worst of online drag is over, especially in the south

Recent estimates add to the evidence that online retail shares are growing more slowly across Europe. There has also been little sign of convergence in online shares, supporting our long-held view...

3rd September 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.)

With transaction volumes moderating and inventory rising, we expect the Australian housing market to cool in months ahead.

2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Jul. 24)

Net lending to commercial property was positive for the fourth consecutive month in July, albeit by a smaller £520mn. With development lending still negative, this was driven entirely by a rise in...

30th August 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2024)

July’s money and lending data provide further evidence that a steady improvement in the flow and demand of credit is supporting the economic recovery. That said, credit growth is unlikely to...

30th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Price Index (Aug. 2024)

Despite the recent declines in mortgage rates, the small fall in the Nationwide house price index in August suggests affordability constraints on households continue to bite. But the further drop in...

30th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Prime office rent gains to beat consensus expectations

Prime office rents look set to rise by more than we had previously expected over the next few years given still low CBD vacancy, preferences for prime space and cuts to the supply pipeline in 2025-26...

29th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Is the City of London bouncing back?

City offices have underperformed their West End neighbours by a wide margin since 2022. More encouraging recent data have led us to revise up our City rental projections, but we still expect stronger...

28th August 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields

Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast...

27th August 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2024)

The muted 0.2% rise in the national Case-Shiller house price index in June was no shock considering that buyer demand collapsed that month, while supply kept growing. With the spring selling season...

27th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Jul. 2024)

The surge in new home sales in July was driven by pent-up buyers taking advantage of the sharp drop in borrowing costs last month, after having been sidelined earlier this year by high mortgage rates...

23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Officials ease price controls, mull direct homebuying

Allowing local governments to use special bond issuance to directly purchase unsold homes could address the lack of SOE participation in the current property destocking scheme. But this approach would...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2024)

A stabilisation of property yields and solid rent growth mean that euro-zone all-property values increased in Q2 for the first time in two years. However, market sentiment remains very weak and...

23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Taiwan defies dovish shift among Asia’s central banks

The common theme across the three central bank meetings in Asia this week was that inflation concerns are fading, partly due to a rebound in currencies, and policymakers appear a bit more concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2024)

The small rebound in existing home sales in July seems underwhelming after last month’s large drop in mortgage rates, but the data are based on completed transactions and so it will take at least...

22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read