UK Economics Weekly

How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding

With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of...

14th June 2024 · 9 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

London office starts spell trouble for non-prime space

The latest Crane Survey reported that a record high 16.4m sq. ft. of London office space was under construction in Q1. That in part reflects developers delaying projects until the demand outlook...

13th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2024)

Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the...

13th June 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Property values on course to fall by more than 25%

The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this summer could be the bottom for transactions, but we still see valuations needing to fall by another 12% from...

11th June 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum

The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

As the economy is set for a sustained period of below potential growth and core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the end of the year, the Bank of Canada’s June interest rate cut...

10th June 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (May 2024)

The slight decline in the Halifax house price index in May confirmed that the increase in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall. Mortgage rates have continued to...

7th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Tables turning in favour of southern European offices

Indications that take-up stabilised across many markets in Q1 were encouraging. However, looking ahead we think the prospects for occupier demand are better in southern European markets.

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages

The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a...

6th June 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Housing Market Focus

Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much

Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on...

6th June 2024 · 14 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to a two-year high of 54.7 in May. Both the commercial and housing balances improved, with the latter rising above 50 for the first time since October 2022...

6th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

How much office space will be needed by 2030?

Our 2020 analysis of the impact of changed working patterns on office demand correctly estimated the share of fully remote work, but underpredicted the extent of hybrid work. Yet with office job...

5th June 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (May 2024)

The decline in mortgage rates in May was not enough to stop home purchase mortgage applications from falling to a three-month low. The chances of a quick turnaround in June currently look slim, as the...

5th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Will delays to rate cuts hit capital values?

Inflation has been stickier than we had expected and we have therefore pushed back when we think the Bank will start cutting interest rates. That may put a little upward pressure on property yields...

4th June 2024 · 3 mins read