Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) Even though Brazilian industrial production rose by a slightly better-than-expected 0.2% m/m in December, the sector was a drag on growth over Q4 as a whole. The services sector seemed to fare a bit... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation up to the middle of January will give the central bank room to hold off raising rates until there is more clarity on the government’s reform plan. For our... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro puts trade ahead of fiscal reform at Davos Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro’s headline speech in Davos today suggests that opening up the economy to international trade will be a major priority, something that would boost the economy’s long... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Weakness in ARS to continue, noisy Brazil data The Argentine peso has given up some of its recent gains against the dollar this week, and we expect further weakness over the coming months. Elsewhere, better-than-expected Brazilian retail sales... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: why trade liberalisation would help Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro seems to be pushing one of his campaign pledges to liberalise trade and, if successful, history suggests that this might plausibly add as much as 0.75%-pts to... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a seven-month low of 3.7% y/y in December, coming alongside the continued strength of the real, means the central bank is likely to strike a more dovish line in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The softer-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure for November of 0.1% m/m underscores the weakness of the economy and supports our view that some of the optimism about growth prospects... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro boost continues, Banxico a bit less hawkish Brazilian markets have performed strongly this week as hopes for business-friendly reforms under President Jair Bolsonaro have continued to build, but we think that the rally may run out of steam... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB takes a dovish turn The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) statement from last night’s meeting suggests that interest rates will be left unchanged over the next few months at least. We think a tightening cycle will start... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pricing Amlo risk, Brazil’s GDP quirk Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s announcement that he will postpone oil auctions adds to a series of populist moves that have rattled local markets, and we reckon this has resulted in a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation in November, to 4.1% y/y (from 4.6% y/y in October), reinforces our view that Copom won’t rush to tighten policy. We expect the Selic rate to be... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs can afford to loosen fiscal policy? Most of the major EMs have ample fiscal firepower. This is particularly true in Asia and we think fiscal policy is likely to be loosened in much of the region next year, which should cushion slowdowns... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reform: what’s at stake? Brazil’s incoming government has given little detail about its proposed (and much-needed) reforms to the country’s pension system. But stabilising the public debt ratio would require reform at the... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) Weaker-than-expected Brazilian industrial growth in October, of 0.2% m/m, provides early evidence that GDP growth in Q4 is likely to be weaker than Q3’s outturn of 0.8% q/q. 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico blames Amlo, commodities driving BRL again The minutes to Banxico’s latest interest rate meeting send a clear message that the recent policy shift under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) will result in further rate hikes. Elsewhere... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2018) The robust 0.8% q/q expansion in Brazilian GDP in Q3 was flattered by the recovery from disruptions caused by the truck drivers’ strike in May. That said, the improvement in the latest survey data... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
