Latin America Economics Update Election fallout likely to be greatest in Brazil, not Mexico There are still plenty of twists and turns that have yet to play out ahead of elections in Mexico and Brazil later this year. But developments over the past month mean we are becoming less concerned... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Mar.) Brazilian inflation dipped again in March but our sense is that policymakers will start to focus less on the incoming inflation data and more on rising political risks and the associated drop in the... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rally in Brazilian markets after Lula ruling to be limited The ruling by Brazil’s Supreme Court to imprison left-wing populist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) all but ends his bid for the presidency and throws the election race wide open. While markets are... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s weaker-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure confirmed that the sector made a very weak start to the year and, barring a surge in output in March, industry probably dragged... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal policy will determine future path of Brazil rates Brazil’s central bank appears to have been spooked by the weakness of the recent inflation data, but we think that the conduct of fiscal policy will ultimately have a much greater bearing on how... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation in Brazil came in as expected in February, but its failure to pick up over the past couple of months gives Copom the green light to lower interest rates again later this month. We now expect... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: living on borrowed time We don’t think that the apparent collapse of pension reform in Brazil will have much of a bearing on the economy’s performance over the next 6-12 months. Even so, the current pension system – and by... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The fall in Brazilian industrial production in January was largely payback for an especially strong outturn in December – we still expect the industrial recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will politics put an end to the rally in Brazil’s equities? Brazil’s stock market has been the best-performing of any major economy this year, soaring by well over 10% despite the turmoil in global equities a few weeks ago. But we suspect that it will come... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) Brazilian inflation was unchanged in the first half of February, but we still expect the headline rate to drift up over the course of this year. Our sense is that this should prevent Copom from... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to drift higher We expect inflation in Brazil to drift higher in the coming months, reaching just over 4% y/y by the end of this year. This won’t cause a major headache for policymakers but, despite the dovish tone... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected increase in Brazilian consumer prices last month, of 2.9% y/y, unchanged from December, reinforces our view that the rise in inflation over the course of this year will be... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil? The cyclical forces driving Brazil’s economic recovery are likely to strengthen over the next 6-12 months and our GDP forecast for 2018 remains above the consensus. Our bigger concern lies around... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 3.0% y/y last month leaves it right at the lower bound of the central bank’s 4.5±1.5% target range, which should provide room for a further 25bp cut in the Selic... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 0.2% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production was the third consecutive monthly expansion, and the latest survey data indicate that conditions in the sector should continue to improve... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Gradually scaling back support despite low inflation Despite the fact that core inflation in advanced economies has generally remained very low, policymakers are committed to reducing policy support and/or raising interest rates next year. Fed officials... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
