Latin America Economics Update How bad is Brazil’s consumer slowdown? The slowdown in Brazilian retail sales growth in the last few months looks alarming, but there are reasons to think that any weakness in overall consumer spending will be more modest. 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank preparing the ground for tightening The statement that accompanied the Brazilian Central Bank’s meeting last night provided the first clear sign that it is preparing to tighten monetary conditions, with the first rate hike likely to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus A look ahead to Brazil’s election Brazil’s presidential race is still very open, but the scale of the challenge the victor will face means that even a market-friendly president won’t be able to stabilise the public finances and boost... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug.) The decline in Brazilian inflation in August, to 4.2% y/y, adds to the reasons to think that Copom won’t raise interest rates at its meeting this month. Moreover, core inflation still looks quite soft... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The small fall in Brazilian industrial production in July, of 0.2% m/m, provides further evidence that the economy’s recovery from the truck drivers’ strike in May has been soft. However, leading... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2) The 0.2% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q2 was a decent outturn given the disruptions to the economy caused by the truck drivers’ strike in late May. And growth is likely to strengthen in the second... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation to head in opposite directions Inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has been a bit higher than we had anticipated over the past few weeks, but we think the broad trend over the next year or so will be up in Brazil, and down in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) Brazilian inflation rose to a higher-than-expected 4.5% y/y last month, but this reflects higher food and energy inflation which the central bank has made clear it will look through. Underlying price... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The 13.1% m/m jump in Brazilian industrial production in June confirmed that the sharp fall in output seen in May was a temporary result of the truck drivers’ strike in that month. But even so, it... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank looking through inflation spike The slightly more dovish language in the Brazilian central bank’s post-meeting statement adds weight to our view that policymakers are untroubled by the recent spike in inflation. And while a... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Underlying inflation in Brazil still soft The sharp jump in headline inflation in Brazil over the past month has masked continued weakness in core inflation. And underlying price pressures should remain fairly subdued over the next 12-18... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal discipline slipping in Brazil The 2019 budget guidelines approved by Brazil’s Congress this week diluted measures to contain spending and reinforce our view that appetite for economic reform in the legislature is waning. Even if... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil’s recovery? The hit to the Brazilian economy from May’s truck drivers’ strike already seems to be reversing. But the recent tightening of financial conditions means the recovery over the second half of the year... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, from 2.9% y/y in May appears to be a result entirely of the truck drivers’ strike and electricity price hikes, and there are already signs that... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The 10.9% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in May suggests that the truck drivers’ strike at the end of that month may have knocked about 0.4-0.6%-pts off q/q GDP growth in the second... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Financial conditions tighten in key economies Argentina’s currency crisis has caused financial conditions there to tighten sharply in the past few months, and this is one reason why we expect the economy to fall into recession in the coming... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
