China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Today’s lending data suggest that while a slightly more accommodative policy stance has continued to support bank lending, broader credit growth remains on a downward path. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Don’t expect China, Russia or the US to save Greece Suggestions that China or Russia might come to Greece’s rescue are wishful thinking as it is not in the economic or political interests of either country to do so. Nor is it likely that the US will... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices to remain in the doldrums Lower input costs, weakening demand and overproduction led to sharp falls in Chinese steel prices over the last year. In our view, these factors will continue to weigh on the Chinese steel market in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What’s behind the EMBI Global spread? The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index, which includes the dollar denominated debt of 61 emerging market governments, is still around 430bp despite falling slightly in recent weeks... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Split in EM export performance is widening The value of EM exports continued to fall in annual terms in December, with oil producers faring especially poorly. The early signs are that Asia's manufacturing-oriented economies will report weak... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs are most at risk from dollar strength? The US dollar’s recent strong run has raised concerns that EMs with large holdings of dollar-denominated debt will come under pressure. Indeed, India’s central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, has gone... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Inflation fell to a five-year low in January but we don’t think this should spark concerns over impending deflation. The drop was largely due to volatile food prices ahead of Chinese New Year and... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Five key questions about the renminbi After sharp gains against most other currencies over the past year, the renminbi is no longer clearly undervalued. But there is no strong reason to believe – as many now seem to – that the renminbi is... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports slip from December record While China’s commodity import volumes dipped in January, they are still holding up. With the exception of coal, the latest data underpin our expectation that China’s commodity imports will continue... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effect pulls inflation to five-year low We expect consumer price inflation to have fallen to the lowest in more than five years in January, dragged down by further declines in commodity costs and the ususal volatility around Chinese New... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) The sharp fall in headline trade growth in January is not cause for alarm as it largely reflects the usual volatility ahead of Chinese New Year, along with the fall in global commodity prices which... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Shifting dynamics in the tin trade Indonesia’s efforts to dictate the tin market look increasingly futile as China finds a new source of tin ore and lifts domestic refined production. However, despite the changing dynamics, the bigger... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Risks skewed towards unexpected rate cuts – for now… Today’s decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower reserve requirements underlines the current heightened risk of policy surprises in the EM world. We continue to think that any further surprise... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC signals continued policy support Today’s required reserve ratio cut is primarily a signal that the People’s Bank is maintaining the more accommodative stance adopted in November rather than a response to capital outflows or “currency... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing weakness concentrated in the BRICs The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world was stable, but still sluggish, at the start of this year. However, while manufacturers in the BRIC economies are... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) While the PMI readings for January are less downbeat on conditions among small firms, they suggest that momentum has continued to deteriorate among larger firms on the back of softening external... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
