China Economics Update Shining a light on “stealth” stimulus Markets have latched onto two low-key policy developments at the start of 2015 as evidence that policymakers are pursuing both monetary and fiscal stimulus by stealth. We don’t think either amounts to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation steady for now despite oil price plunge Retail fuel prices have fallen rapidly in China, as elsewhere. In December though, China’s vegetable prices rose sharply, with the result that we are unlikely to see the large fall in headline... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Oil price collapse lowers Russian ruble’s fair value Last week, the Russian finance ministry claimed that the ruble was “extremely undervalued”. Admittedly, it made the claim when the currency was around 70 to the dollar, and the exchange rate has since... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil price slide prompts withdrawal from emerging markets Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Who is most exposed to the debts of oil majors? The fall in oil prices has raised concerns about oil majors’ ability to service debts accumulated during the good times. Risks are concentrated in Latin America, but there is plenty that both... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi reverses course A month after benchmark interest rates were cut in China, market interest rates have risen, putting the People’s Bank under pressure to do more to reduce financing costs. Meanwhile, the equity markets... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will sustained low oil prices affect EM currencies? The currencies of many emerging economies have sold off recently, due to general US dollar strength and, in some cases, declining oil prices. While our forecast that oil prices will remain low... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth unlikely to have slowed sharply in Q4 Activity cooled in both industry and real estate in November but our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth across the wider economy nonetheless edged up on the back of stronger activity... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Winners and (even bigger) losers from lower oil prices Most countries (and the world as a whole) should be better off as a result of the slump in oil prices, including key emerging markets such as China and India. Of the major advanced economies, Japan is... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs signal demand still weak Continued softness in flash PMIs this month, particularly in China, does not provide hope that commodity prices will benefit from a significant pick-up in demand. 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2015 shaping up to be another lacklustre year The turmoil in Russia and broader weakness in EM financial markets has brought a subdued end to the year. For 2014 as a whole, the latest data point to aggregate GDP growth of less than 5% for the... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Manufacturing activity looks to have continued to cool in recent weeks in spite of last month's rate cut, an apparent loosening of lending controls and the return to normal operations at factories in... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's GDP set for statistical boost The government is tomorrow likely to announce an upward revision of perhaps 5~10% to its estimate of the size of China’s economy. Nothing will have changed on the ground, but the data revisions will... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
