Global Markets Update Investors’ enthusiasm for EM assets should return Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP by Sector (Q4) Today's full breakdown of Q4 GDP suggests that a key reason for China's better-than-expected growth last quarter lies with the recent stock market rally, which appears to have driven a sharp pick-up... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How durable is the Hong Kong peg? The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision last week to abandon its exchange rate ceiling has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. While the peg creates a number of problems, it... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Q4 GDP & December Activity Data Today's data suggest that although slowing investment, particularly in the property sector, continues to put downward pressure on growth, this was offset last quarter by a pick-up in consumption and... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much does today’s slide in Shanghai matter? There had been signs even before today’s share price slide that China’s equity markets were coming off the boil. The direct impact of any sustained slump in equity prices would be small, both in China... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No end in sight to build-up in China's credit risks Recent progress made towards curbing the rise of China's credit-to-GDP ratio is likely to slow going forward as it becomes more difficult to continue to rein in credit without undermining growth. 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks shift to easing mode Having been in tightening mode at the end of 2014, a number of EM central banks have surprised markets by loosening monetary policy since the start of the year, with policymakers in Romania, India... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Oil exporters feel the squeeze The value of EM exports fell in annual terms for the first time in almost a year in November as the slide in oil prices dragged on exports from energy producing EMs. The further slump in oil prices... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Dec.) & FX reserves (Q4) While a pick-up in banking lending growth in December suggests a slightly more accommodative policy stance, we think stronger growth in other forms of credit reflects a weak base for comparison due to... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How and where we differ from the consensus In general our forecasts for both EM growth and inflation over 2015-16 are below consensus expectations and for the BRIC economies in particular we are notably more downbeat than the rest of the... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Lower oil prices to support growth The recent sharp drop in global oil prices is a positive development for Emerging Asia. It will support growth in most economies and will put downward pressure on inflation, providing scope for... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for the Chinese renminbi? Since the end of November, the renminbi has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. However, the real effective exchange rate of China’s currency has continued to appreciate sharply, as the... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well The latest Chinese trade data show a rebound in most commodity imports in December, led by oil. While some buying was probably opportunistic, taking advantage of lower prices, the data also support... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Stronger-than-expected export growth points to healthy external demand. Meanwhile, although import growth remains subdued, a pick-up in commodity import volumes has prevented falling commodity prices... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) A modest pick-up in consumer price inflation in December, on the back of a sharp rise in vegetable prices, is a reminder that Chinese inflation is much less sensitive to oil prices than inflation in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
