China Economics Update Low birth rate won’t derail growth China’s couples have responded less ardently than many had expected to relaxation of the one-child policy. But we shouldn’t be too worried about the impact on economic growth. 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for February show a 4.6% m/m fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. However, data for the first two months of the year suggest it is too soon to factor... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency weakness concentrated in low-saving EMs The hardest hit EM currencies over the course of this year have been those of the economies with low domestic savings rates. In the absence of reforms to address this frailty, the currencies of low... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Post-FOMC relief proves short-lived The rally in EM currencies following the conclusion of yesterday’s FOMC meeting has proved to be short-lived, with markets seemingly focussing on the fact that the Fed has paved the way for a June... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worried should we be about the strong dollar? Fears over the outlook for emerging markets have resurfaced over the past few days, with the latest concerns focusing on the impact that a strong dollar will have on EM balance sheets. In our view... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policymakers strike sanguine note If there is one key message on the economy to take away from the National People’s Congress it is that the government is aware of downside risks to growth but confident that it has the tools and the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What do China’s prospects mean for commodity prices? The growth rate of China’s economy has already halved since 2007, from over 14% to around 7%. What’s more, this slowdown has been the main reason why the prices of many commodities have performed so... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What impact would deposit rate liberalisation have? China is moving closer to full liberalisation of bank deposit rates. Households should benefit from higher returns while banks will find themselves squeezed. But some of the hoped-for gains from... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export downturn deepens The value of EM exports fell at the sharpest rate in more than five years in January. The timing of Chinese New Year was partly to blame, and an improvement is almost guaranteed in February, given the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Credit growth strengthened last month on the back of a more accommodative policy stance. That said, we still think that concerns over the build-up of credit risks mean policymakers will stop short of... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Fragile EM currencies set for further weakness The fall in emerging market currencies since the beginning of this year has picked up pace this month. Two main forces appear to have been at work. First, the depreciation of the euro has led the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) The slowdown in activity at the start of 2015 was even sharper than today’s headline figures might suggest because a bout of weakness a year before had provided a flattering base for comparison... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the fallout from the EM currency slump Most EM currencies have weakened substantially against the US dollar this year. For a few EMs with large dollar debts, such as Turkey, this could lead to financial strains. And the impact of currency... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s seasonal pick-up in food inflation will likely prove short-lived and we still expect inflation to fall back below 1% in coming months. Nonetheless, today's inflation data suggest that... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese stockpiling to support demand We expect additional Chinese stockpiling to increase demand for agricultural commodities over the next few years. This should add a bit of support to prices, but the fundamentals of individual... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import data still distorted by holidays China’s commodity import volumes fell in February but this was hardly surprising given the long mid-month holiday. We expect demand to start recovering in March, boosted by low prevailing prices. 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
