China Data Response Trade (Feb.) Export growth has been strong so far this year, even after adjusting for the New Year volatility that led to surge in growth last month. That said, rapid trade-weighted renminbi appreciation and a... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Bumps in the road but no fiscal cliff Yesterday's budget left us none the wiser about how policymakers plan to manage the abrupt halt in off-budget financing that new rules are imposing on local governments this year. There could be some... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China unlikely to write a blank cheque for Lat Am The slump in commodity prices since last summer has exposed fragilities in the balance of payments of several economies in Latin America. But while that has left some governments looking to China for... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Little to support US steel prices, for now US steel prices have plummeted since late 2014 but perhaps what is more surprising is the fact that they had not fallen earlier. Market conditions suggest prices will continue to struggle this year... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update February bounce in inflation likely to be short-lived After a bounce in February, inflation in China looks likely to drift lower in coming months – but remain positive, we think – before rebounding in the second half of the year. 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela in crisis, but EM risks generally low Our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI) reports that the overall level of emerging market (EM) risk remains at a decade low, but that concerns remain about a handful of countries. Venezuela... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update China takes another step away from coal power We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as China continues to turn its back on coal. However, the downside should be limited by growing demand... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The opening day of the National People’s Congress leaves us upbeat that the government will push ahead with reforms and make further progress in rebalancing the economy away from investment, even if... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Copper provides a glimmer of hope A lack of Chinese buyers because of the new year holiday was a key factor weighing on metals prices in February. Only copper prices rose, perhaps in part reflecting encouraging economic data out of... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing activity steady, but sluggish The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing growth across the emerging world remained stable, yet sluggish, in the first couple of months of this year. Some of the larger EMs are still struggling... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rate cut alone won't boost lending The People's Bank has cut benchmark rates in order to help some indebted firms cope with the rise in real borrowing costs that has resulted from lower inflation. But the central bank still appears to... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) February's stronger-than-expected PMI readings suggest that a pick-up in domestic demand has led to a slight improvement in momentum, particularly among small firms, and that downward pressure on... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress The unveiling of a new, lower GDP growth target at the National People’s Congress would be an encouraging sign that the government is facing up to the continued slowdown in China’s sustainable rate of... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Time for EM equities to shine? After a tough end to last year, emerging market equities have continued to pick up over the past month. Admittedly, they have lagged behind equities in developed markets, which have performed very... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Bauxite shortfall to support alumina prices Lower bauxite availability, owing to the Indonesian export ban, and dwindling Chinese stocks will impede alumina production this year, leading to higher prices. 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling energy prices push many EMs into deflation Concerns over deflation have started to resurface across the emerging world. But the latest deceleration in inflation has been driven by last year’s plunge in oil prices. Accordingly, we continue to... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
