EM Valuations Monitor Will Russia’s sovereign credit spread keep falling? Russia’s bond market continued to fare well in March. This may have reflected a growing sense that the risk of a financial crisis in the country has passed in the wake of emergency rate hikes late... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to further weakness The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world slowed further last month, driven mainly by weakness in some of the larger EM economies. By contrast, manufacturers in... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly AIIB – what is all the fuss about? Poor infrastructure is likely to remain a key constraint on economic development across large parts of Emerging Asia over the next decade. For all the headlines, the Asian Infrastructure Investment... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook In the footsteps of the Fed? The recent run of poor data from around the emerging world is likely to set the tone for the rest of this year. Brazil’s struggles look set to continue, Russia is likely to slip deeper into recession... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Today's PMI readings suggests that manufacturing conditions, among large firms at least, have held up better than expected. But this doesn’t do away with the need for more policy support to prevent... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does China’s PMI mean for Australia? Although China’s PMI is a relatively poor indicator of the near-term outlook for Australia’s exports, it does tell us how demand in China is influencing the prices of Australia’s key commodity exports... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese equities surge to seven-year high Chinese equity markets surged over the past month to the highest in more than seven years, with sentiment boosted by growing expectations for further policy support. Meanwhile, the renminbi has... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BRICs drive pick-up in EM inflation A pick-up in inflation in all four of BRIC economies pushed aggregate EM inflation to an eight-month high last month. However, the bigger picture remains that in most EMs inflation is both low and... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Shifting sands: why the outlook for the BRICs is starting to diverge The prospects for the four largest emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are starting to diverge. The outlook for India is improving and, despite a recent run of poor data, we think... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Outlook for China has actually brightened The recent news on China's economy has been generally downbeat. But less attention has been paid to some encouraging structural shifts which mean that the risks of a slump in growth have diminished... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stuck at post-crisis low Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM GDP growth has remained stuck at just over 4.0% y/y in recent months – a low not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. However, the aggregate figure... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) Today’s disappointing PMI readings from China could have a silver lining for commodities: the data are not bad enough to justify market fears of an imminent “hard landing”, but they may prompt... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today's PMI reading adds to evidence of a sharp slowdown in Q1. We expect policymakers to respond by stepping up measures to support growth. 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2015 Business sentiment has deteriorated this quarter however there has been a pick-up in reported loan demand, perhaps spurred by recent policy easing. Meanwhile, fewer households believe house prices are... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor China’s growth slipping below 7% in Q1 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy has slowed markedly this quarter. We expect further policy support and are not too concerned about the outlook given how much room policymakers... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton price to fall despite market moving into deficit Even though the world cotton market is likely to move into deficit this coming year, huge global stocks and increased competitiveness of synthetic fibres should drag the price of cotton lower. 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
