Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s stocks report showed a rise in commercial crude inventories last week, confounding analyst expectations of a drawdown. However, total stocks fell, which helps to explain why oil prices have... 10th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market resilient to banking sector turmoil The US housing market has been largely unaffected by the banking sector turmoil. Indeed, buyer sentiment rose to an 11-month high in April and activity appears to have bottomed out. Tighter credit... 10th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Stubborn core inflation may not prevent Treasury outperformance Despite a persistently elevated core rate, today’s US CPI release was not strong enough to detract from our view that slower economic growth and souring risk appetite will support Treasuries and weigh... 10th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.4% m/m gains in headline and core consumer prices in April leaves core inflation at 5.5%, broadly unchanged from its level at the start of this year, further illustrating that the previous... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads still look too low to us With credit conditions tightening and, in our view, recessions looming in the US and other advanced economies, we think it is only a matter of time before corporate credit spreads widen. 9th May 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Affordability adds downside risk to big 6 apartments We think migration patterns of footloose workers will continue to play the largest role in driving the rental outlook across metros. But rent as a share of income will also have a bearing, weighing on... 9th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update SLOOS shows banks tightening credit conditions The recent turmoil in the banking sector doesn’t appear to have triggered a severe further tightening in credit conditions, but since lending standards were already being tightened to a degree only... 8th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We still think Treasury yields and the S&P 500 will fall this year Despite today’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, we continue to think that the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the next couple of quarters. 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Precious Metals Update Safe-haven demand to support gold, for now Concern about banks and the US debt ceiling will keep the gold price historically high in the next few months. However, once these worries fade, we think that longer-term headwinds will come into play... 5th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed pause may not last for long The April employment report showed that while jobs growth remains solid enough, it is still trending lower and the surveys suggest activity growth is slowing too. With ongoing concerns over regional... 5th May 2023 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tight supply supporting house prices While home sales have plummeted, house prices have fallen just 3% so far and eked out a small gain in February. We think this reflects the role that tight supply is playing in this downturn, with the... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 253,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April suggests that the labour market remains resilient despite the banking sector turmoil and broader signs of an economic slowdown. That said, the stronger... 5th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Shifting yield gaps probably not enough to sustain euro strength The ECB’s 25bp rate hike today and subsequent comments from President Lagarde suggest the Bank will continue to hike for a while longer than the Fed. Although this may shift government bond yield gaps... 4th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update How US & E-Z bonds might fare as rate hikes conclude We forecast small further falls in the yields of long-dated US Treasuries and euro-zone sovereign bonds between now and the end of next year, as disinflation picks up steam and central banks turn more... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
