Capital Daily A debt ceiling crisis wouldn’t necessarily be worse for Treasuries We don’t think long-dated government bonds are bound to fare worse than equities in the US if there is a debt ceiling crisis. 25th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) New home sales jumped in March and house prices increased 0.2% m/m in February. The continued resilience of the housing market means the risk to our forecast of an 8% drop in house prices are now to... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US growth stocks may lose some more of their shine We think that the more recent underperformance of some of the largest US growth stocks could be a sign of things to come over the coming years, given how large the valuation gaps between growth and... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Assessing the physical climate change risks to property The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly May rate hike likely to be the last We now expect the Fed to press ahead with another 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting early next month but, with the economic data softening and the risks of a debt ceiling crisis rising, we still... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the global growth backdrop stills favours the US dollar While stronger-than-expected data out of Europe and China have weighed on the dollar over the past two quarters, our view is that the current global backdrop points to a rebound in the greenback... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Growth stock valuations still look unsustainably high We would not be surprised if US “growth” stocks outperformed their “value” peers by a bit more in the near term. But we still suspect that growth will underperform value substantially over the longer... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Bad news for risky assets: financial conditions really are tight We think Fed Chair Powell was right to suggest last month that financial conditions have probably tightened by more than the traditional indices imply. That spells bad news for risky assets. We are... 20th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Existing home sales edged lower in March rounding off the weakest start to the year in over a decade. While the lending data point to further declines in April, we expect mortgage rates will fall back... 20th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Direct economic effects of CRE rout will be limited We expect rising interest rates and structural headwinds to trigger a deep rout in commercial real estate. The impacts on the real economy will be mostly indirect via the impact on small bank lending... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Persistent UK inflation unlikely to preclude lower Gilt yields While we think investors are correct to price in more persistent UK inflation, we think a sharp decline in core inflation next year will allow the Bank of England to cut rates by more than most expect... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Falling margins to help bring inflation down The recent undershooting of CPI used vehicle prices relative to wholesale auction prices appears, at least partly, to reflect a squeeze on dealer margins as demand has cooled. The upshot is that we... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of our Treasury and S&P 500 forecasts We think investors’ expectations for the Fed funds rate will fall a little by the end of this year, which will push the 10-year Treasury yield a bit lower by end-2023. But we doubt lower “risk-free”... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) Single-family starts rose for the second consecutive month in March which adds weight to the view that starts have bottomed out. Building permits and homebuilder confidence also edged higher. But... 18th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed earnings unlikely to change outlook for the banking sector Q1 earnings reports from US banks have been a mixed bag thus far; we still believe the sector faces a difficult year ahead. 17th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A tale of two listed real estate markets While US equity REITs are a long way from discounting the “best of times” for US commercial real estate (CRE) over the coming quarters, listed real estate stocks in Europe appear braced for something... 17th April 2023 · 8 mins read
